EUR/USD: J Powell leaves time

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The publication yesterday of inflation figures firm than expected within the meaning of consumer prices will have caused a warm -up of American bond yields, however, on the dollar. On the contrary, even, since the euro resumed some “pips”, against the backdrop of hope of peace in Ukraine.

The publication of consumer prices in the United States yesterday fell timely at the heart of the semi-annual hearing of the boss of the Fed in front of parliamentarians (of the Senate on Tuesday and the Chamber of Representatives on Wednesday). Regarding these CPIs (Consumer Price Index), they stand up 3.0% in the widest product basket in annual rhythm in January, against a target at 2.9%. Enough to cause additional yields, especially the American 10 years which serves as a barometer. The Treasuries 10 Years flare towards 4.60% in the wake of this statistic which puts a little more pressure on the monetary institution, forced to stabilize its rates.

“This is the 9th time over the past 10 years that inflation has been released above expectations in January. This time, the rise in underlying inflation is almost entirely explained by the component ‘ Transport ‘.

After the statistics, the markets only provide for a reduction of a quarter of a point (0.25 percentage points) for the rest of 2025, according to Bloomberg.

Bover can follow at 2:30 p.m., production prices as well as weekly unemployment benefits across the Atlantic, two indicators directly correlated to inflation.

General psychology does not change, however, the single currency remaining in great difficulty against the greenback from the double summit of September, when the half -yearly hearing of J Powell is ended with parliamentary commissions. The Fed boss sent a clear message on this occasion: he leaves time before considering an loosening of the monetary tap.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0430 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,0425 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a USD 1,0609 protection stop.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 424 pips and the risk of loss was 184 pips.

Daily data graphics