CAC 40: In the immediate vicinity of the summits

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The trend to look at the “half full” glass will have once again dominated the debates last week, a week that will have seen the CAC 40 index get rid of the symbolic threshold of the 8,000 points, in a rain of quarterly results and then What does the hope of a peace (but under what condition?) In Ukraine.

Finally, the market will have very easily digested the inflationary signals of the last days, on employment, consumer prices and production across the Atlantic. “In any event, rates are stretched across the Atlantic. Now, markets are no longer anticipated only one drop in key rates by the Fed in 2025 while Donald Trump has been campaigning for several months for more rate drops many from the Fed “, for Grégoire Kounowski, investment strategy advisor at Norman K.

In addition, the market will have cynically benefited from the good performance of Wall Street with the support of the announcement, by Donald Trump, the establishment of so -called reciprocal customs duties, despising the basic rules of the World Organization trade. Concretely, developing countries have differentiated rights, allowing them to sell their products with lower taxes than to import. Here reciprocity simply means that Trump is sweeping this concept …

The boarder of the White House promised on Thursday that he would impose these “reciprocal customs rights” to restore “equity” in trade relations between the United States and the rest of the world. But the American president did not give a calendar. The American Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lungick, however mentioned the possibility of implementing them in April, according to Deutsche Bank. “In the meantime, the question of whether this pricing threat will be used as a negotiation tool may remain unanswered,” judges the German bank.

In short, the hopes of peace in Ukraine and the results of companies relegated to the background the announcements of Donald Trump on customs surcharges.

In the statistical chapter across the Atlantic, retail sales for the month of January came to a surprise decline by 0.4% (excluding automotive). The consensus was +0.3%.

On the values ​​side, Hermès increased by 0.8% after having delivered impressive growth, 17.6% in data comparable to the fourth quarter, when consensus was around 11%. Even more remarkable since the fourth quarter 2024 remained a difficult period for the luxury sector. Safran nibbled 0.1% after delivering results without surprise. But the market appreciated the fact that the company intends clearly to improve the margin of its propulsion division in 2025. Eutelsat collapsed by 19.1% after having delivered its results of the first semester and warned of a second part of the exercise complicated.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended in dispersed order, like the Dow Jones (-0.37%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.41%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, played the averages, by finishing the Friday session at balance (-0.01% at 6,114 points).

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0490. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 70.50.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow priority the figures of the trade balance in the euro zone at 11:00 am.

Note that Wall Street will remain closed this Monday due to a public holiday (Presidents’ Day), celebrated every third Monday in February in honor of the various presidents of the United States.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday 24 and 31/01 and reflected on Monday 27/01 and 03/02. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap.

The 8,000 symbolic points were crossed in week 7 with confirmation in “Hebdo” data.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8315.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 8000.00 points would relaunch the sales pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics