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The pair of Euro / dollar currencies, against a short -term resistance zone, retained a lower lower bias, bias fueled by the “remuneration” gap, present and future, between the two currencies of spot. J Powell, patron of the Fed is unlike its European counterpart, C Lagarde, “forced” to restraint in its monetary easing process. The latest inflation figures (PCE, ICC, PPI), as well as chronic tensions on the employment front in a flourishing economy, are the matrix.
Furthermore, “trade and migration policies in the United States are associated with an increase in inflationary risk. Customs duties could lead to an increase in property prices, both directly, if retaliatory measures against the United States Increase import costs, and indirectly through disruption of the supply chain. WM France.
On Wednesday, the Fed will publish its traditional “minutes”, namely the chronological report of the debates of the last FOMC (monetary policy committee). The powerful monetary institution “should confirm that the central bank clearly revives its prospects for lowering rates. We are now tabling on a terminal rate to 4.25% (an additional rate drop),” according to Christopher Dembik, Advisor In investment strategy at Pictet AM
Nevertheless, the euro, an excellent gauge of risk appetite in the financial markets, resumed a little going last week, against the backdrop of hope for a peace, or at least a cease Fire, in Ukraine.
President Donald Trump discussed this Wednesday, February 12 for almost 90 minutes by phone with Vladimir Putin. An exchange that had never been so long between Moscow and Washington since the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine in February 2022. The 47th President of the United States decided with Vladimir Putin to launch “immediate” negotiations on the Ukraine. The two men also agreed to meet in person.
In the immediate future, the business has just taken note of the trade balance in the euro zone, whose surplus is in accordance with expectations for the month of December, at +14.6 billion euros.
No American figure is expected on Monday. Note that the business will be deprived this Monday of a precious benchmark, that of Wall Street, which remains closed due to a public holiday (Presidents’ Day).
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0485 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0483 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0611 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 482 pips and the risk of loss is 128 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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