CAC 40: offensive on the defense …

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In the absence of American benchmarks, Wall Street having remained closed due to a public holiday, the Parisian market was almost caught (+0.13% at 8,189 points) on Monday, the defense sector firing game in a very lively geopolitical context.

An informal meeting in Paris, organized by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, brought together several European heads of government on Monday. The goal is to define a common response to strengthen the security of the old continent. This meeting occurs while the recent initiatives of the Trump administration have withdrawn if not marginalized the Europeans in the discussions before reaching the arrest of the war in Ukraine. In parallel, several European leaders, notably the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called to raise military spending in Europe, even if it means softening budgetary rules.

Basically, the markets say to themselves that if the Americans “let us go”, the dream of a defense Europe, never really realized, can materialize. Provided you put the price. It is in this context that the defense values ​​outperformed yesterday, like Dassault Aviations (+6.49%), Thalès (+7.83%) or Safran (+2.48%)

To be complete on the values ​​side, FDJ increased by 3.7% after having pre-published its annual and warned results of the impacts of the new taxation of the games of money on its results. In addition, the Biotech Innate Pharma resumed 8.6% after announcing that one of its flagship products had obtained innovative drug status in the United States.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,450. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 71.40.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the German ZEW index of economic feeling at 11:00 am and the manufacturer Empire State at 2:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.

This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.

A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.

The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday 24 and 31/01 and reflected on Monday 27/01 and 03/02. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap.

The 8,000 symbolic points were crossed in week 7 with confirmation in “Hebdo” data.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8315.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 8000.00 points would relaunch the sales pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics