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The pair of Euro / dollar currencies, against a short -term resistance zone, retained a lower lower bias, bias fueled by the “remuneration” gap, present and future, between the two currencies of spot. J Powell, patron of the Fed is unlike its European counterpart, C Lagarde, “forced” to restraint in its monetary easing process. The latest inflation figures (PCE, ICC, PPI), as well as chronic tensions on the employment front in a flourishing economy, are the matrix.
It must be said that “trade and migration policies in the United States are associated with an increase in inflationary risk. Customs duties could lead to an increase in property prices, both directly, if retaliatory measures against states- UNIS increases import costs, and indirectly through disruption of the supply chain. UBS WM France.
Tomorrow, the Fed will publish its traditional “minutes”, namely the chronological report of the debates of the last FOMC (monetary policy committee). The powerful monetary institution “should confirm that the central bank clearly revives its prospects for lowering rates. We are now tabling on a terminal rate to 4.25% (an additional rate drop),” according to Christopher Dembik, Advisor In investment strategy at Pictet AM. See you tomorrow, 8:00 p.m. for this precious publication.
On the thorny geopolitical front, an informal meeting in Paris, organized by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, brought together several European government leaders on Monday. The goal is to define a common response to strengthen the security of the old continent. This meeting occurs while the recent initiatives of the Trump administration have withdrawn if not marginalized the Europeans in the discussions before reaching the arrest of the war in Ukraine. In parallel, several European leaders, notably the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called to raise military spending in Europe, even if it means softening budgetary rules.
It is in this context that the burners will “really” start their week, with the return of benchmarks from Wall Street, which remained closed yesterday due to a holiday (Presidents’ Day).
On the macroeconomic aspect, the operators learned yesterday from the trade balance in the euro zone, whose surplus is in line with expectations for the month of December, at +14.6 billion euros. They have just composed with the publication of the German ZEW index, confidence in the first economy in the euro zone. The barometer rises to 26.0 points.
“As the federal elections approached, economic expectations have improved significantly in February. This growing optimism is probably due to the hope of a new German government capable of acting. In addition, after a period of absence of Request, private consumption should regain vigor in the next six months. ‘Improvement of the prospects of the construction sector, “said Achim Wambach, the president of the Zew Institute.
To follow the manufacturing index “Empire State” at 2:30 pm.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0460 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0463 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,0611 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 462 pips and the risk of loss is 148 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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