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The CAC 40 index patinated somewhat on Tuesday but, proof of the strength of its configuration, managed to symbolically nibble 0.21% to get closer to around fifty points from its absolute records. The market resumed contact with a major benchmark, Wall Street, which reopened after a holiday Monday.
Few significant variations to report on the compartment is the side, that of the big stock markets. Note all the same the spectacular fall of Capgemini (-10.22%), after publication of timid perspectives for 2025, with a new withdrawal in the first half of its income outside of exchange effects. Yet the 4th quarter of 2024 came beyond expectations, but the “warning” (warning) has frozen the atmosphere.
In addition, the specialist in payment solutions in the work world Edenred has published an increase in his income below the expectations in data comparable to the fourth quarter. The growth forecast of the gross operating profit expected for 2025 also arouses the circumspection. Its action lost 4.68%.
In the statistical chapter, quite little to put in the tooth. The operators composed with the publication of the German ZEW index, confidence in the first economy in the euro zone. The barometer rises to 26.0 points.
“As the federal elections approached, economic expectations have improved significantly in February. This growing optimism is probably due to the hope of a new German government capable of acting. In addition, after a period of absence of Request, private consumption should regain vigor in the next six months. ‘Improvement of sector prospects construction, “said Achim Wambach, the president of the Zew Institute.
As for the manufacturing index “Empire State”, an industrial barometer of the NY Fed, it leaves its negative territory by leaping from -12.6 to 5.7.
On the thorny geopolitical front, an informal meeting in Paris, organized by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, brought together several European government leaders on Monday. The goal is to define a common response to strengthen the security of the old continent. This meeting occurs while the recent initiatives of the Trump administration have withdrawn if not marginalized the Europeans in the discussions before reaching the arrest of the war in Ukraine. In parallel, several European leaders, notably the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called to raise military spending in Europe, even if it means softening budgetary rules.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended at levels very close to balance, for their first session after a long weekend. The Dow Jones finished on the 44,556 points and the Nasdaq Composite on the 20,041 points. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers,, for its part, grapped 0.24% to 6,129 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0,450. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 72.00.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday to follow an interview with D Trump and Musk on Fox News at 3:00 p.m., as well as the Fed minutes at 8:00 p.m. In this traditional chronological report of the debates of the last FOMC (Monetary Policy Committee), the powerful monetary institution “should confirm that the Central Bank clearly revives its prospects for lowering rates. We are now riding on a terminal rate 4.25% (an additional rate drop) “, according to Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM. See you this Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. for this precious publication.
Key graphics elements
We attended a major technical and graphic fact Thursday January 16 with crossing on Gap then extension in session, from the pivot threshold of the 7,500 points, which finds its support attributes. The current work base therefore becomes a band between 7,500 and 7,690 points, in which a certain form of volatility is far from excluded.
This crossing was immediately followed by a new GAP (less ample) and a bullish extension in session, with the participation of many sectors, marking the assertion of the buyer camp.
A first manifestation of a need for courses breathing was illustrated on Wednesday with a high shadow on the candle, on a level close to the 7,800 points, the first palpable obstacle since the rush crossing of 7,465/7,500 points. Between 7,900 and 8,000 points, the flagship index comes into a very short -term over -rascal zone, premises a consolidation entry.
The index just flirted with the 8,000 symbolic points on Friday 24 and 31/01 and reflected on Monday 27/01 and 03/02. Both doji Indecision traced at the heart of the week are a marker of a wait -and -see attitude, and therefore of a precarious balance, at the start of consolidation. This balance was broken from the beginning of February, by a large -scale gap.
The 8,000 symbolic points were crossed in week 7 with confirmation in “Hebdo” data.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8260.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 8000.00 points would relaunch the sales pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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