(BFM Stock Exchange) – The specialist in payment solutions in the world of work has published an increase in its lower income than expectations in data comparable to the fourth quarter. The growth forecast of the gross operating profit expected for 2025 also arouses the circumspection.

Flagship growth value of the Parisian square, to the point of accessing CAC 40 in 2023, Edenred saw its stock market status radically changed in 2024.

Its action was heckled by a mixture of slowdown in growth combined with fears of a negative development of regulations in Italy (where an unfavorable law will actually come into force on July 1) as well as in France and Brazil. The title of the group specializing in payment solutions in the world of work thus plunges 42.4% over a year.

The market is now ruthless with the Company and the slightest branch finds itself harshly sanctioned, as had been the case when the results of the first semester were published last July.

Unfortunately for its shareholders, this is still the case this Tuesday, February 18. After the publication of the company’s annual results, the Edenred action dropped by 5.8% around 3:30 p.m. and accused the second largest drop in CAC 40, behind Capgemini (-8.4%).

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Punctual effects

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Edenred’s revenues registered at 779 million euros, up 8.8% in published data and 4.7% excluding exchange and perimeter effects. Growth turns out to be lower than expectations since analysts were tabling on an organic increase in income 6.7% according to a consensus cited by ODDO BHF.

The only operational turnover, which is taken from the emission of prepaid service securities, has climbed 8.5% into published data and 4.6% in organic variation. Retired from Argentinian hyperinflation, the increase in income in organic data is 7.9%, said Edenred.

In any case, growth has slowed down again. In the third quarter, total income had increased by 11.5% in comparable data and operational turnover had increased by 10.8%, still in comparable data.

“The slowdown in growth in the last quarter of 2024 certainly leads the title this Tuesday because if you extrapolate this growth in 2025 you mechanically end up a drop in consensus estimates,” said an analyst.

Edenred mentioned several punctual effects in the fourth quarter. In its largest division, the “advantages to employees” (restaurant titles, gift vouchers), the company has suffered from the non-re-use of the consumption check program in Belgium.

The activity of gift cards has been penalized by a high comparison base. By excluding these two effects, growth in this division would have increased by 13.7% in the fourth quarter (compared to 10.6% without retirements), against 9.7% in the third, explained the CEO of the company, Bertrand Dumazy .

A 2025 target which becomes “punchy”

Regarding its other account lines, Edenred released an EBITDA (gross operating profit) growing 15.7% over the entire 2024, to 1.27 billion euros. Its net profit has jumped 90% to 507 million euros. These two figures exceeded consensus by 1%.

Beyond the slowdown in growth, several financial intermediaries point to doubts about the target of Edenred d’Ebitda for 2025 to explain the fall of the title.

The company has confirmed its objective of growth in this financial indicator of at least 10% in comparable data for this year. A forecast which incorporates a negative impact of 60 million euros linked to the placement of a cap of the commissions of restaurant titles in Italy as of July 1, 2025.

Bertrand Dumazy also told analysts that the company anticipated an increase in operational turnover “High Single Digit”, which can be roughly translated by growth from 7% to 9%.

“The objective of an increase in the EBITDA of at least 10% in 2025 becomes ‘punchy’ (demanding editor’s note) because with an operational income growth ‘high single digit’, the margin will improve significantly “Explains the previously quoted analyst.

For the time being, consensus does not actually believe in this target, wedging on an increase of 5.7%, according to Oddo BHF.

“The market is looking for the slightest hook to lower the value because honestly they do almost everything you have to do, especially on growth”, regrets a financial intermediary. “The decline seems exaggerated,” says another.

To improve its margin of Ebitda next year, Edenred decided to launch a program called “Fit for Growth” to “optimize” its cost base.

The company has also defined an action plan on its activities which are not at the level of the whole company in terms of performance. For some of them, which represent 12% of operational turnover, improvement programs have been launched.

This is the case of the activity of gift cards, its activity of service to collect VAT in Europe or CSI, its subsidiary specializing in inter -company payment software. For a small fraction, which constitutes approximately 3% of income, a “portfolio review” has been set up. This means that society can potentially yield these activities.