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The major Cover meeting this Wednesday is undoubtedly the publication at 8:00 pm (Paris time) of the traditional “minutes” of the Fed, the chronological report of the debates that hosted the last FOMC (monetary policy committee). The ideal opportunity to measure the forces in presence between bellicist and accommodative frameworks, to refine the projections of drop in rates this year. For the moment, a scenario to a single drop in rates, of 25 basic points of the Fed Funds, is largely anticipated, due to the vigor of the American economy, the tensions on employment and the inflationist risks induced by Donald Trump’s interventionist policy, especially on the customs front.
It must be said that “trade and migration policies in the United States are associated with an increase in inflationary risk. Customs duties could lead to an increase in property prices, both directly, if retaliatory measures against states- UNIS increases import costs, and indirectly through disruption of the supply chain. Inflation “, for Claudia Panseri, Chief Investment Officer at UBS WM France.
“In any event, rates are stretched across the Atlantic. Now, markets are no longer anticipated only one drop in key rates by the Fed in 2025 while Donald Trump has been campaigning for several months for more rate drops many from the Fed “, for Grégoire Kounowski, investment strategy advisor at Norman K.
To be continued at 3:00 p.m. an interview with D Trump and E Musk on Fox News and at 8:00 p.m. the minutes of the last FOMC. Yesterday, the Bovers learned of the German ZEW index, a confidence index in the first economy in the euro zone. The barometer rises to 26.0 points.
“As the federal elections approached, economic expectations have improved significantly in February. This growing optimism is probably due to the hope of a new German government capable of acting. In addition, after a period of absence of Request, private consumption should regain vigor in the next six months. ‘Improvement of sector prospects construction, “said Achim Wambach, the president of the Zew Institute.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0425 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The continuous 50 -day (in orange) mobile average constitutes a solid technical and graphic barrier. In the shorter term, it is even his counterpart at 20 days (in dark blue) that officiates as a dynamic resistance. And this without the RSI oscillator positioning itself in the occurrence zone. In the immediate future, the pair of currencies traces, in the upper part of the Bollinger bands, a negative structure in harami. Once the parity is perfect, namely $ 1 for a €, an energetic buyer of protest can then be set up.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,0420 USD. The price of course in our lowering scenario is 1,0001 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a USD 1,0609 protection stop.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 419 pips and the risk of loss was 189 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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