(BFM Stock Exchange) – For the past few months, major European capitalizations have been growing more than large American clues. Investors surveyed by Bank of America now see more potential in Eurostoxx than in Nasdaq.

The proverb wants that a swallow is not spring. But the thing is rare enough to be underlined: European actions clearly beat American actions on this beginning of the year.

Since January 1, the CAC 40 has won 10.5%, the Dax 40 of Frankfurt increased by 11.95%, the FTSE 100 of London won around 6%, and the pan -European “Stoxx Europe” 8.46%.

In comparison, the two major American indices, the S & P500 and the Nasdaq Composite, earn 2.6% respectively

and 1.7%.

“In the past two months (December 2024 and January 2025, editor’s note), Europe, unloved, has behaved well and exceptionally outperformed American actions. The Euro Stoxx 50 (another pan -European index, editor’s note) even displayed the strongest outperformance over two months compared to the S&P 500 in 10 years and the second largest since 2000, “noted Deutsche Bank, In early February.

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Pendulum return

It should be noted that European actions were clearly delayed to catch up. The Stoxx Europe 600 had only won 9.5% in 2024 against 25% for the S&P 500. European actions were notably penalized by French values, themselves weighed down both by political risk and the slowdown in Chinese economy.

The absence of European values ​​very exposed to artificial intelligence (apart from SAP which signed an excellent course last year) also brought the heavy goods vehicles of the old continent to underperform American mega-spaces. Last year, the “seven magnificent” (Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Meta) of Wall Street recorded increases of more than 60%, on average, against around 6-7% for Seven higher European capitalizations.

In addition, if Donald Trump’s election last November clearly carried the American indices, the market anticipating measures favorable to growth as tax cuts, it was much less true for European actions. Customs threats brandished by the boarder of the White House have, on the contrary, weighed down several sectors of the old continent, notably the automobile or spirits.

On this beginning of 2025, there was a return of a pendulum. First of all, the American “Bigtechs” run out of steam on Wall Street. On average, their shares fell 0.8%since January 1, and this average hides significant disparities between Meta (+17.3%) and Tesla (-15.8%), which suffers from very sales figures Bad in Europe (-3% in January in the five largest European countries).

A good season of results

The latest results of the “GAFAMs” were also generally poorly welcomed by Wall Street. Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft have disappointed in their dematerialized IT activities (Cloud). The rise of the Chinese start-up Deepseek, which has developed high-performance artificial intelligence models (AI) and a priori with much lower costs than American societies, has also made investors more nervous and more scrupulous On the expenses of AI of these “Bigtech”.

Another positive element for Europe: Donald Trump put a little bit of water in his wine on customs prices. If he has mentioned customs surcharge on European imports, the date of entry into force and the concrete application of these measures are still vague and thus suggest potential levers of negotiations.

The hopes of truce or even the end of the conflict in Ukraine also carried European actions. Especially since, paradoxically, these hopes were accompanied by an increase in European defense values ​​(Rheinmetall has been 45% since the start of the year and Thales 31.5%). This because Donald Trump, by marginalizing European leaders in negotiations to end the conflict, pushed these same leaders to react. And to express their intention to cooperate more and increase their military spending.

Last point: the start of the results season in Europe is pretty good, so far. According to a statement by Bank of America, arrested on February 10, the 25% of companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 to have published results posted 11% growth in joint stock, compared to expectations housed at +5%.

Barclays notes that after Donald Trump’s victory, Europe was perceived as the obvious loser on the stock market, and had suffered significant capital outings. Pessimism had fallen at extreme levels, she notes.

“Since then, a certain number of stars have been aligning for Europe. Although some of these elements are probably more hopeful than reality, optimism with regard to a more oriented German government towards growth, the stability of French policy and budget and, more recently, the growing optimism with regard to a cease-fire in Ukraine are all elements that contribute to improving the situation “, List the bank British.

“But the main engine of the annual rebound is undoubtedly the growing confidence – justified or not – in the fact that the pricing risk is more a negotiation tool than a real threat, and that Europe could therefore be more Shelter that we feared, “she adds.

Deepseek lead Wall Street

Can this outperformance of European actions continue in the coming months? Can they finally beat Wall Street in 2025? According to data from the Schroders active manager, this has only occurred twice over the last ten years (in 2017 and 2022).

The opinions remain shared. Deutsche Bank thinks that this outperformance will continue in the coming months “but at a slower rate”. “The return of long -term investors is just beginning, in our view, and leaves an additional margin of progression,” adds the German bank.

The establishment judges that European companies will beat expectations more when they publicize their results than American groups. Deutsche Bank also considers that the questions raised by Deepseek will continue to weigh on the performance of “seven magnificent” and by ricochet on the attractiveness of American actions compared to the Europeans.

In a letter published on February 7, Benjamin Melman, director of investments of the Edmond de Rothschild group, said he did not see “reason to under-ponder European actions for the benefit of the American market”.

The market specialist judges that the German legislative elections, which take place this Sunday, February 23, could “serve as an additional catalyst” for European actions. “At the same time, the questions raised by Deepseek could lastingly moderate the dynamism of the American market,” he adds.

“European actions continue to be supported by attractive levels of valuation, even if institutional investors doubt that the movement is durable, even in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine,” noted Christopher Dembik, Pictet am. “In the long term, they remain convinced that American actions are essential,” he adds.

Barclays she notes that skepticism with regard to Europe remains “deeply high” with its customers. The bank also notes a polarization between the sectors, with banks which are becoming refuge values ​​while the automobile, chemistry and mining still suffer.

An encouraging sign is in any case occurred this week. Bank of America published the results of his monthly survey carried out with fund managers (**). To the question “What index do you see the best performance in 2025”, 22% of respondents chose the Eurostoxx 50, against 18% for the NASDAQ and Hang Seng of Hong Kong. In January the American technological index was still largely ahead. This suggests that a switch on the side of European actions is perhaps in the process of taking place in the eyes of investors.