(BFM Stock Exchange) – The bank went from “buy” to “keep” on the title of the group at the diamond this Tuesday, October 25. Jefferies considers that Renault’s recovery has now taken the most “traditional” stages and that the last phase will be the most difficult. Because it depends on many external elements.

Renault was one of the major sources of satisfaction in the Parisian square in 2024. Last year, the diamond manufacturer signed an increase of 27.5%, the sixth largest in CAC 40, and, especially the most Strong among European car manufacturers.

However, since the start of the year, Renault has been tired somewhat on the stock market. Its title is appreciated by only 2.5% since January 1, clearly underperforming the CAC 40, which wins 9.4% over the same period.

>> Access our exclusive graphic analyzes, and enter into the confidence of the trading portfolio

The failure of discussions between Nissan and Honda, which would have offered Renault more options to monetize its 35.7% participation in the capital of Nissan, weighed. As well as its annual results, published last week. If the diamond group has generally delivered better than expected figures, the margins, in particular the operating margin of the automobile, very followed, “turned out to be a bit tight,” said Deutsche Bank.

In addition, Renault communicated prudent prospects for 2025, tabling on an operating margin of at least 7%, after a rate of 7.6% in 2024. This prudence is due to uncertainties around the so -called “cafe regulation “On CO2 emissions in Europe. A severe screw tour operated in 2025 on this regulation with demanding emission thresholds. Fines or at least additional costs are expected, the manufacturers may not sell enough electric or thermal vehicles to enter the nails.

Renault has integrated an impact of 1 percentage point linked to CAFE regulation in its operating margin forecast. “We believe that the recall of the risks of non-compliance (on CAFE regulation) faced by most European manufacturers was the main reason for the 4% drop in action” which followed the publication of Results, explained Bernstein.

The end of an era, that of “traditional” recovery

Has the manufacturer now eaten its white bread on the stock market? Should a break take place on the action? Jefferies responds in the affirmative.

The bank lowered this Tuesday, February 25, its recommendation on the title of the manufacturer in the diamond, on Tuesday 25, February 25, going from “buying” to “keep” while adjusting its price target to 52 euros, against 55 euros previously.

This change of advice weighs a little on the Renault title which abandons 1% around 3:20 p.m. while the CAC 40 nibbles from the field (-0.18%) at the same time.

Jefferies sees in the manufacturer’s 2024 accounts the end of a cycle for Renault. The one where the diamond manufacturer was able to straighten its profitability and make up for its competitors thanks to price increases (in particular by targeting the channel of individuals more to the detriment of professional rental companies and fleets) and to “mix” effects (orientation Sales to better marked products) positive.

Jefferies estimates in passing that Renault’s prospects for 2025, although prudent, are not so far from the consensus (7.4% for the operating margin and 2.3 billion euros for the cash flow, against “at least “2 billion referred to by the company). This means that the manufacturer has very little field to surprise the market and therefore allow its action to go up.

“The market already expects good resistance” Renault “in particular thanks to the passage of Dacia in the segment C (segment of compact minivans, more profitable than the b, that of city cars, editor’s note) and Reduction of ampere losses “, the subsidiary of the company dedicated to electrical technologies and on -board software.

More broadly, Jefferies estimates that Renault’s recovery has now passed the “classic” stages, that is to say those centered on the elevation of the range, industrial rationalization or even efficiency in terms of costs.

“In our opinion, the ‘traditional’ part of the remarkable RENAULT recovery has come to an end, leaving the investment file to depend more on the ability to be ‘smart’ on the strategy, how to monetize participation in Nissan, From the faculty to sail in the industrial transition as well as the means of working with Geely without further diluting the shareholders, “develops Jefferies.

Futurama, an early chapter?

However, Renault does not really have a hand on these challenges. Giving in more Nissan actions or even selling all the participation will depend on “opportunities escaping the control” of the French company, Pointe Jefferies.

Cooperation with the Chinese manufacturer Geely has its merits and virtues. The two groups are notably associated with 45/45 (the remaining 10% is held by Saudi Aramco) with the capital of Horse, a company specializing in thermal and hybrid motorcycle groups.

The two groups also have a joint venture in Korea and announced in mid-February a framework agreement for cooperation in Brazil. According to this agreement, Geely will become a minority shareholder of Renault Do Brasil, a Brazilian subsidiary of the diamond group.

The collaboration between the two groups creates “growth and synergies opportunities, but also raise questions about value retention and the presence of minority interests, taking into account the long history of Renault (Volvo AB, Nissan, the project Introduction on the stock exchange of questionable ampere) “, set Jefferies.

Clearly, the design office recalls that Renault has not always been very good in the past when it has tried to crystallize value on subsidiaries whose capital it shared.

In addition, Jefferies is a little skeptical on the next strategic plan of Renault, called “Futurama”. Last week, Luca de Meo, the director general of the company, announced to analysts that this future roadmap would be presented this year.

This new step will aim to make the results of Renault less cyclical and to invest more to strengthen the technological assets of the group and thus bring it back into “the Automobile Champions League”, he added.

“We remain constructive as to Renault’s efforts to improve product development times, simplify manufacturing design and optimize assembly times (less than 10 hours), but Futurama, the next strategic plan, will likely aim Under -standard profit that seems premature given the pressure on the automotive sector, “warns Jefferies.