CAC 40: Price ‘PCE’ on the menu this Friday

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The Paris market fell on Friday, however, in moderate margins, while the brutal president of the United States again draws the customs threat, by evoking 25% of rights to pay on the products from the European Union. Or an alignment with the polic he wants to lead with his immediate Canadian and Mexican neighbors. “But, as often with Donald Trump, the details on the calendar where any targeted sectors are lacking in the call.” It is not clear if they are general customs duties or sectoral customs duties, because Mr. Trump has referred to ‘cars and everything else’, notes Deutsche Bank.

The CAC 40 lost 0.51% by maintaining a margin of 100 points above the symbolic threshold of the 8,000 points.

Pending sectoral and calendar forecasts, operators had the leisure to dissect the quarterly Nvidia, one of the stars on the American technological coast. The graphic processor manufacturer has once again delivered robust growth and higher than expectations. But his forecasts for the first quarter of his 2025-2026 exercise did not meet the highest expectations and his gross margin target is disappointing.

Investors are – and it is very legitimate, more and more greedy on the prospects, in view of the valuation levels. “The lukewarm reaction of investors speaks volumes. The company has managed to appease some of the worst fears of the market with what it said on its line of new generation products, but the group has not exceeded expectations dramatically,” said Stephen Innes, of SPI AM.

“It is not the kind of shine that had become the norm in the rally supplied by AI. And in a market that is already in Cran, ‘good enough’ is not always enough,” he adds.

In addition to this publication, as major as it is, the operators were attentive to the “macro” publications. On this statistical component- and this explains significant relaxation over the American 10 years- the United States remain on a series of disappointing economic statistical indicators. The Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) is in particular ironed below 100 points, supporting the scenario of an inflection point in the American economy, whose health is still very good. But a succession of indicators (retail sales, U-Mich, or the PMI barometers) suggest a very slight cooling of the machine.

“These American macroeconomic figures had the effect of relaxing the American long rates a little … But this was not of great support for the equity markets, which rather saw in these figures the risks of a slowdown in consumption and activity in the United States in the coming months,” comments Alexandre Baradez for IG France.

Thursday, three important figures were on the program. These are weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, up significantly at 242,000; orders of lasting goods which stagnate, under the expectations, excluding transport elements; and finally GDP of the T4, and mechanically of the year 2024, which pleasantly surprises at +2.4%.

On the values ​​side, Group Vusion (ex its imagotag) burst by almost 24%. The specialist group of electronic labels delivered a gross operating result above expectations for 2024 and above all communicated prospects for 2025 which have fully focused the analysts. Engie came to play the shock absorbers for the CAC 40 (+5.27%), signing the highest increase in the index, after having noted its prospects for 2025 and 2026. Technip Energies gained 8.9%after having delivered results above expectations and raised its dividend by 50%. The results of Ipsos were also well received, the title taking 8.3%.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares closed in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.45%) but especially the composite Nasdaq (-2.78%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 1.59% to 5,861 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0380. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.70. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.23%.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the PCE prices (personal consumption Expenditures) as a priority, the Fed’s predilection measure in its appreciation of inflation.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm. Work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the favorite graphic scenario.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8230.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 8000.00 points would relaunch the sales pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics