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The CAC 40 index, which never ceases to oscillate very nervously under its historical summits, managed to grab 0.29% at the end of 8 197 points, after the Council of the Governors of the ECB and new “customs” announcements of D Trump.
The Central Bank based in Frankfurt has as it was very widely anticipated, lowered its main key rate of 25 base points.
“Unlike the January declaration, monetary policy is no longer described as” restrictive “but as” significantly less restrictive “. The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, justified this change mainly by the increase in mortgage and loans to companies in recent months,” said Ulrike Kastens, senior Europe economist in DWS.
“”[Christine Lagarde] has remained cautious about the potential impact of an increase in defense expenses on growth. She said that the ECB wanted to wait to know the details, the funding mode, etc., before deciding. However, it mentioned a significant impact on the economy as well as bullish risks for inflation. “
The markets had reacted very positively the day before with the announced end of the budgetary “golden rule” in Germany. The Conservatives (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) have been announced to have reached an agreement for the creation of an infrastructure fund of several hundred billion euros. In addition, the “golden rule” of the debt brake will be deeply modified, in particular to invest massively in the defense. Currently, this rule limits the federal budget deficit to 0.35%.
New flip-flop of the elusive and impetuous Trump on customs duties. The latest announcements are positive. The tenant of the White House announced on its social social network that most of the customs duties on Mexican imports were suspended until April 2.
The American Minister of Commerce Howard Lutnick had already suggested in the afternoon that products from Canada and Mexico, which respect the terms of the free trade agreement with the United States, should “probably” be exempt from customs duties for a month, in an interview with CNBC.
On Wednesday, the United States had already decided to exempt the “Big Three” from Detroit for a month, that is to say the car manufacturers Stellantis, Ford and General Motors of these customs duties.
Recall that customs duties up to 25% on import products from Canada and Mexico had come into force this week. Even if the operators fed the hope that an agreement could be reached between Washington and its immediate neighbors.
During his speech before the Congress, the American president reaffirmed his strategic line of construction of customs barriers, while admitting certain “risks” inherent in the exercise …
In the statistical chapter, the operators learned of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic, after the disappointment aroused the day before by the conclusions of the investigation of the ADP. These registrations amount to 221,000, against expectations at 234,000.
On the values ​​side, Air France-KLM and JCDecaux bounced 33% and 13.9% respectively after publishing their annual results. Conversely, FDJ plunged 11.1%. The silver game operator said relying on a gross margin of raw operating operating this year due to the increase in the taxation of money games and a regulatory screw in the Netherlands. Saint Gobain (+5.32%) and Alstom (+12.3%) retained their momentum, nourished by potential future markets in infrastructure in Germany.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares have completed the session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.99%) and especially the composite Nasdaq (-2.61%), a high technological coloring index. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, abandoned 1.78% to 5,738 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0820. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.20. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.24%.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the NFP (non-Farm Payrolls) report on private employment health in the United States, in February. The consensus for post creations is 159,000.
Key graphics elements
The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm. Work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the favorite graphic scenario.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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