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While the reflux of American actions accelerate, especially on technological files at Fort Per, the CAC returned to test a technical safeguard Monday around 8,000 / 8030 points, down 0.90%, with fence on the low points of the day. The operators remain worried about a possible inflection point in the American economy, against the backdrop of intense trade war.
“By demagogy, by populism, the American president risks plunging his country into recession, a height! Let the United States face an important trade deficit, 920 billion dollars in 2024, is obvious. That this deficit is the consequence of dubious commercial practices, without a doubt. But the use of protectionism is a real absurdity for a country dominates all the major sectors and Quart of the world’s GDP “, in the words of Philippe Crevel, in his latest editorial of the Circle of the Savings.
Asked, this weekend, on the possibility of a stronger recession or inflation which would be caused by customs surcharges, Donald Trump did not respond clearly. The American president simply spoke of “a transition period”. His trade secretary, Scott Bessent, spoke to him “adjustments” and an American economy which could know a little. The latest NFP (non-Farm Payrolls), without being catastrophic, campaigned in this sense, as well as recent publications that have made market rooms: PMI Services, U-Mich of consumer confidence.
Without being catastrophic, the latest monthly job report, published on Friday, distilled some additional doubts. The unemployment rate increased slightly, at 4.1% of the active population, where consensus increased stagnation to 4.0%. The number of job creations are lacking, with little, expectations, just over 150,000. Ras, however, concerning the increase in average time wages at +0.3%.
“For the moment, these data indicate a neutral situation: no significant weakness, but not an economic boom either. It is rather an image coherent with an economy of high growth in growth closer to its potential. In the future, the impact of job reductions in the public sector, persistent uncertainty in businesses and industry that can weaken demand, as well as the consequences of a lower immigration remain Uncertain and clearly represent lower risks, “analyzes Christian Scherrmann, chief economist of the United States for DWS.
Europe, however, shows strong resistance to temptation to take profit at this stage. “The German infrastructure plan and European defense expenses constitute a breakdown. The German 10 years flew by almost 50 bp to around 2.90 %. Conversely, the T-Note oscillates around 4.25 % between bad economic news and tariff uncertainty. On the equity markets, American technology wins while Europe pursues its rise”, synthesized axel boot, of Ostrum am.
A market psychology supported by the statistics of the day, the index of investors confidence in the euro zone, which leaps beyond expectations, at -2.9.
On the values ​​side, in this ocean of uncertainty, several cyclical values ​​such as Saint-Gobain (-5.5%), Société Générale (-5.25%) and ArcelorMittal (-4.6%) accused the blow on Monday. Alstom for his part rendered 4.5% while Citi went from “buying” to “neutral” on the title. Air France-KLM limited its withdrawal to 1.1% while Bernstein lowered its advice to “market performance” against “outperformance” previously. The financial intermediary believes that the company will find it difficult to reduce its costs and prefers other groups on the stock market more exposed to transatlantic traffic.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares reflected strongly on Monday, like the Dow Jones (-2.08%) but especially the Nasdaq Composite (-4.00%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 2.70% to 5,614 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0860. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 65.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.19%.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States at 3:00 p.m. Tuesday.
It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Therefore, and while waiting for mainland France to pass, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3.30 p.m.
Key graphics elements
The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm. Work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the favorite graphic scenario.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This lowering scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq composite index rates below the resistance at 8260.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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