CAC 40: The VIX remains firm

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With the increasingly significant fear of seeing the American economy, the first in the world, going through the recession box, the CAC 40 broke on Tuesday the intermediate floor of the 8,000 points, weighed up among others by Capgemini (-3.83%), Accor (-4.25%) and Stellantis (-5.30%).

The trade war, which is now raging in North America after a series of white house procrastination on the subject, has tense the markets of the markets.

Donald Trump announced an increase in customs duties on Canadian steel and aluminum applicable on Wednesday, to bring them from to 50%, compared to 25% previously. Bad news never arriving alone, Donald Trump also promised to “considerably increase” customs surcharges on Canadian cars from April 2, “if Canada does not give up other incredible and long -standing customs duties”.

The President is going back to blow, since the Canadian province of Ontario decided on Monday to apply customs duties of 25% to the export of electricity to the United States. This customs surcharge will be maintained, “until the American customs duties are eliminated once and for all,” the government said in a statement quoted by Radio Canada.

“The GDPNOW indicator, which makes it possible to follow the evolution in real time of American GDP, indicates a sharp drop of -2.8 % in just a few days. This decline is explained by a degradation of the trade balance, caused by important orders of American companies in anticipation of new customs policies to come,” notes Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

For more than a month, a black series of macroeconomic statistics completely missing expectations have alerted the operators: U-Mich of households, retail sales, unemployment.

“Trump’s threats to increased geopolitical rates and uncertainties forced us to be cautious about the resumption of consumption,” warns Alexandre Drabowicz, Global Chief Investment Officer and Bénédicte Kukla, Senior Investment Strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, in a note on Europe.

“This could more than compensate for the boost brought by the new defense and infrastructure plans, which will have more impact on growth in 2026 than in 2025. Analysts estimated a risk between -0.5 and -1 percentage point of possible implementation of customs tariffs on the growth of European GDP of 2025 -this is not a negligible risk even if the impact should be more sectoral and specific to certain countries, mainly pharmaceutical products and the automobile (Ireland, Germany). “

It is in this context that the consumer prices indices on the Atlantic (ICC) will be published tomorrow, expected up 0.3% monthly, excluding food and energy. Any difference in the target could cause a temperature rise of the VIX beyond the 30s.

On the values ​​side, Stellantis (-5.30%) is the victim of this new rise in tension of the trade war in North America. Accor (-4.25%) suffered from a Delta Airlines warning.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the Red Tuesday session, like Dow Jones (-1.14%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.18%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 0.76% to 5,572 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0890. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.25%. As for the VIX, it was worth 27 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the consumer price indices in the United States at 1:30 p.m.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Therefore, and while waiting for mainland France to pass, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3.30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm. Work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the favorite graphic scenario. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in increasing volatility, of the threshold of 8,000 points.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics