CAC 40: Less unconditionality for purchase

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Market operators did not hide their anxiety before the publication of inflation data in the United States on Wednesday, while trade war rages in North America, and in general, Trump doctrines are by nature inflationary.

The price dynamics in the sense of the ICCs have rather reassured, the prices progressing by 2.8% in February at an annual rate, against 2.9% in January.

“In theory, the month of February is the first for which it would have been possible to see a small effect of customs rights increases because the first increase of 10 points against China took effect at the beginning of this month. But nothing is really detectable for the moment,” notes Bastien Drut, responsible for strategy and economic studies at CPRAM.

As a reminder, Donald Trump announced at the start of the week an increase in customs duties on Canadian steel and aluminum applicable on Wednesday, to bring them from to 50%, against 25% previously. Bad news never arriving alone, Donald Trump also promised to “considerably increase” customs surcharges on Canadian cars from April 2, “if Canada does not give up other incredible and long -standing customs duties”.

The President is going back to blow, since the Canadian province of Ontario decided on Monday to apply customs duties of 25% to the export of electricity to the United States. This customs surcharge will be maintained, “until the American customs duties are eliminated once and for all,” the government said in a statement quoted by Radio Canada.

The trade war is not confined to the North American continent, naturally and “in terms of monetary policy, the readability is suddenly reduced because of the trade war. We plan that the ECB will continue to lower its rates until June, with a terminal rate around 1.85 %”, according to Christopher Dembik.

On the values ​​side, Clariane jumped 14.4%, the title of the operator of retirement homes benefited from a note from BNP Paribas Exane which raised his opinion to “outperformance” against neutral. This same financial intermediary has also resumed the follow -up of Emeis (+2%) to “Superformance”. Bureau Veritas rendered 1.3%, weighted by an operation of a share of a long -term shares on the part of Wendel.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Wednesday session in dispersed order, the Dow Jones contracting by 0.20% and the composite Nasdaq incorporating 1.22%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.49% to fail at a point of 5,600 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0880. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 67.20. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.30%. As for the VIX, it was worth 24.20 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority industrial production in the euro zone at 11:00 am and at 1:30 pm across the Atlantic, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits as well as the various production prices.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics