EUR/USD: Trump, the liar poker and upset lover

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The euro was bothering a consolidation phase, legitimate with regard to a recent advance since March 03, advanced catalyzed by increasingly lively concerns about a possible inflection point in the American economy, the most powerful in the world. The report on inflation, eagerly awaited under these conditions, came out at a rather reassuring level. The price dynamics in the sense of the ICCs have rather reassured, the prices progressing by 2.8% in February at an annual rate, against 2.9% in January.

“In theory, the month of February is the first for which it would have been possible to see a small effect of customs rights increases because the first increase of 10 points against China took effect at the beginning of this month. But nothing is really detectable for the moment,” notes Bastien Drut, responsible for strategy and economic studies at CPRAM.

The operators are still on the alert after a disappointing series of statistics, especially on consumer morale and consumption itself. Recall that the latter is the main engine of wealth creation across the Atlantic, and this in a structural way. However, the trade war which wins in North America, and which enters the hard one with Europe, as well as the anti-immigration policies of Trump, are legitimately a source of concern.

“American customs duties on steel and aluminum have entered into force and, in return, the European Commission has announced its intention to take similar retaliation measures (although on another category of goods from the United States).” Note the nomura economists, which refer to emblematic American products such as Bourbon and Harley Davidson motorcycles.

“If the impact on certain sectors and lines of products could be important, the overall macroeconomic effect on Europe should be low. What is more worrying is that it is only a first step – Europe is now firmly in Mr. Trump’s crosshairs, in particular because it is responsible for more imports to the United States than any other block.”

Enough to be cautious on the American market as a whole – Tech reflux since Trump’s taking office is speaking, and what mechanically make the next monetary deadlines of the Fed. Especially since the American Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its monetary policy meeting next week.

Alexandre Drabowicz, Global Chief Investment Officer and Bénédicte Kukla, Senior Investment Strategist of Indosuez WM speak of “Damoclès sword” to qualify customs duties: “Trump threats on rates and increased geopolitical uncertainties forced us to be cautious about the consumption of consumption. Boost brought by the new defense and infrastructure plans, which will have more impact on growth in 2026 than in 2025. Analysts estimated a risk between -0.5 and -1 percentage point of implementation of customs tariffs on the growth of European GDP of 2025 -This is not a negligible risk even if the impact should be more sector and specific to certain countries, mainly and the automobile (Ireland, Germany). “

On the agenda side, the trades will read this afternoon of production prices across the Atlantic. In the immediate future, the 0.8% monthly increase in industrial production in the euro zone in January was the good surprise of the morning, largely beating the target, the consensus standing at +0.5%, against -0.4% in December.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0840 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The crossing in significant volatility of $ 1,0608 changes the situation on the configuration of the currency pair, which has just validated a resumption of support on a long mobile average, at 50 days (in orange), which begins a resource figure. The scenario of a fast melting towards the perfect parity (€ 1 = $ 1) is invalidated.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,0758 USD and the resistance to USD 1,1012.

Daily data graphics