CAC 40: Trigger of technical alerts

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The CAC 40 continued its slide Thursday, losing 0.64% at 7,938 points, the operators who are difficult to deal with Trump’s gestures on his totem, customs duties. “Tarrif”, one of his favorite words in the dictionary, as the tenant of the White House likes to recall …

Latest development in what should be called a trade war, Donald Trump, threatened to tax, imports of spirits 200%. On its social network Truth Social, the tenant of the White House referred to “villains of customs rights of 50% on whiskeys” set up by the European Union. In the process, Pernord Ricard abandoned almost 4% and Remy Cointreau, 4.70%.

Recall that in reaction to customs duties of 25% set up by the United States on imports of steel and aluminum from all over the world, both the European Union and China and Canada have announced retaliatory measures. Donald Trump himself indicated that he would in turn retaliate, by putting customs duties that could “be a little more than reciprocal” on April 4.

In the statistical chapter, last month, inflation on the producer side (production price) was 3.2% at an annual rate after January 3.7%, always over one year. This data was expected by investors who assess the repercussions of a trade war on prices. Especially since the American Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its monetary policy meeting next week. As a reminder, published the day before, the price dynamics in the sense of the ICC (consumers’ side, therefore) finally reassured, the prices progressing by 2.8% in February at an annual rate, compared to 2.9% in January.

On the values ​​side, in addition to the actors of the spirits mentioned higher, the automotive suppliers were abused like Forvia (-4.41%) and Valeo (-6.43%).

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the session of Thursday in negative territory, like the Dow Jones (-1.30%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-1.96%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, lost 1.39% to 5,521 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0840. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 67.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.29%. As for the VIX, it was worth 24.60 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority consumer confidence data (U-Mich), in preliminary data. An indicator that will be very followed, especially since it had been a very unpleasant surprise last month.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8030.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics