(BFM Stock Exchange) – The precious metal signs a start to the year in a rush, exceeding this month of March 3,000 on the ounce. The design offices agree that this rally has a good chance of continuing.

For the moment, 2025 still looks a lot like 2024 for gold. The “Barbarian relic” as the illustrious economist John Maynard Keynes was nicknamed 14.4% since the start of the year, after taking 27.2% last year, his best year since 2010 according to Deutsche Bank.

In January, a number of strategists and large banks estimated that gold would pass the $ 3,000’s $ 3,000 mark (31.1 grams) in 2025 or 2026, after landing at 2.641 dollars at the end of 2024.

This symbolic bar was crossed at the end of last week, Friday, March 19. Since then, the raw material has stabilized a little above 3,000 dollars per ounce (3.020 dollars currently). As a reminder, gold had exceeded $ 2,000 on the ounce in August 2020, during the pandemic, and the $ 1,000 in 2009, during the major financial crisis.

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Purchases of lower central and dollar banks

All of the bullish forces that have been exercised on gold for a little over a year have continued to play. The central banks of large emerging countries, notably Poland, anxious to send a message of trust on its economy while its country is located near the conflict in Ukraine, continue to fill their reserves.

In February, the Banque Populaire de China, the central bank of the country, still acquired for five tonnes of gold, bringing the total to almost 2,300 tonnes, or 5.9% of the world’s world reserves held by central banks.

The weakness of the dollar has also been able to play in recent weeks. The gold being denominated in dollars, a drop in the greenback makes this raw material more attractive for investors whose reference currency is not the dollar.

However, since mid-January, the US Dollar Index, which measures the evolution of the greenback against a basket of major international currencies, lost 6%. A decrease which is explained both by disappointing economic indicators, but also by the poor performance of the US stock markets.

Anticipations of a recovery of the reduction of guiding rates from the American Federal Reserve (Fed) to the light of the latest inflation data also carried gold. As a reminder, as gold does not produce income such as dividends or coupons (for actions) its attraction tends to crumble when the rates go up. Because, all other things being equal, an increase in rates encourages economic agents more to place their money rather than investing it on gold.

Above all, there is “the elephant in the room”, as English speakers say: the erratic economic and diplomatic policy of Donald Trump. Its waders on customs surcharge have worried more than excited the market.

3,500 dollars in the third quarter

“Traders have anticipated a more ‘Dovish’ (” accommodating “) position on the part of the federal reserve following economic data that showed lower than expected American inflation and employment figures that indicate cooling of the labor market,” said Ricardo Evangelista of Activtrades.

“At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the changing customs policies of President Trump destabilizes the economic agents and darkens the prospects, while the current geopolitical turbulence still reinforce the demand for the metal refuge,” he continues. “In this context, gold prices could further increase,” concludes Ricardo Evangelista.

This opinion seems commonly accepted: the gold rally does not seem ready to stop. Cited by Bloomberg, analysts of the Australian Bank Macquarie believe that the average gold price should be located on average at 3.150 dollars per third in the third quarter of 2025, with a peak that would reach 3,500 dollars. Gold could be used as a “coverage” against inflation and the risk of deterioration of the American deficit, caused by the expansive expansive policies of Donald Trump.

“We believe that the force of the price of gold so far, and our forecasts for the future, are mainly explained by the fact that investors and official institutions are more willing to pay for the lack of credit or counterpart risk that it presents”, judges Macquarie. The Australian bank also sees physical demand (jewelry, parts, ingots) provide an additional support factor.

A need for sure values

UBS raised its forecasts on gold on Monday, now tabling on an ounce of gold at 3.200 dollars at the end of June, against 3,000 dollars before. A level around which the Swiss establishment sees the raw material stabilizing, UBS having the same target of 3.200 dollars per ounce for September, December, as well as for March 2026.

The establishment believes that the rally will continue “as long as political risks and the intensification of commercial conflicts continue to stimulate the demand for sure values”.

“We recognize that the market has entered an area of ​​technical surachat, but we believe that the mood of investors remains caution with regard to American actions and confidence in gold,” adds the bank. UBS also considers that the request of ETFs (index funds) as well as central banks (it is over 1,000 tonnes of gold purchases in 2025) will also be the lessons.

By relying on its forecast models, Bank of America notes that gold could reach 3.500 dollars an ounce, if the demand for investment (therefore other than central banks) increased by 10%.

“It’s a lot, but it’s not impossible,” concluded Bank of America. The establishment quoted the initiative of China to allow insurers to invest in gold which could create 300 tonnes of additional demand, which is equivalent to 6.5% of the world annual market.

In February, Goldman Sachs had noted his goal at the end of 2025 on gold at 3.100 dollars against 2,890 dollars previously. The American bank justified this objective by the fact that central banks alone would bear 9% gold prices with their purchases while demand for index funds would resume.