CAC 40: The Fed has nothing to declare …

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The Paris market has finished a new week full of volatility, on a negative note on Friday, the lack of visibility on export customs taxes towards the United States weighing on the morale of investors.

The market is trying to assess the repercussions of Donald Trump’s commercial policy on global economies. The date of April 2, which the United States intends to implement reciprocal customs duties on all global imports, is also present in the minds of investors. This day was even described as “Liberation Day” by Donald Trump.

“New trade tensions have shaken the financial markets, new reciprocal customs tariffs having come into force on April 2, which raises fears of an prolonged economic impasse,” said Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital.

“The United States and its main business partners are still engaged in negotiations, but as no solution is in sight, investors fear disturbances in the supply chain, a slowdown in global trade and pressure on business profits,” he continues.

The operators also continue to integrate the outcome of the meeting of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), which took place on Wednesday evening. As expected, the American central bank maintained its guiding rates unchanged. But the “plots”, that is to say the projections (and not the forecasts) of the Fed members were published. It turns out that the members of the central bank are more pessimistic about American growth as well as for inflation.

“It is therefore not a break or” dovish “or” hawkish “, but a break justified by uncertainty. Rightly so, the Fed has less conviction, but it is aligned with the market on the future orientation of guiding rates. It also expresses greater concern about the slowdown in economic growth and the rise in inflation resulting from the uncertainty linked to government policies” McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine (subsidiary of Franklin Templeton).

These economic anticipations, updated each quarter, were lowered. + 1.7% GDP growth against 2.1%, 2.7% inflation, compared to 2.5% in the last projections and 4.4% unemployment at the end of 2025, against 4.4% of the active population.

“The Fed therefore sails a little in sight, without being able to anticipate in the long term”, for Grégoire Kounowski, investment Advisor at Norman K. “Which is likely to irritate Donald Trump. Last night, he once again urged the institution to lower his rates while, according to him,” American customs duties begin to make himself (easily!) Several times criticized Jerome Powell (whose mandate runs until 2026) and his policy of lower rates he deems too slow.

On the values ​​side, L’Oréal closed down 2.2%, despite a precious support from Royal Bank of Canada who raised his advice to “outperformance” against “market performance”, which amounts to “buy” against “neutral” previously. Excluding CAC 40, Beneteau fell 11.7% after reporting disappointing prospects for 2025. A warning whose details you can find here. The vetoquinol veterinary laboratory jumped 15.05%, hailed for its annual results emerging above expectations.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in the green the Friday session, in narrow margins, like the Dow Jones (+0.08%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.52%). The S & P500, reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.08% to 5,667 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0840. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 68.20. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.25%. As for the VIX, it was worth 19.80 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow the “flash” data of PMI activity barometers (industry and services) in the euro zone at 10:00 am as a priority.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.

Under the 7,810 points, the technical situation would deteriorate somewhat, with in particular the effect of attraction of gaps formed in January, especially that of the 16, very large.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics