CAC 40: Technically, the 8,000 points make sense

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New transitional session for CAC 40 (+1.08% Tuesday), at the heart of an extended consolidation figure, investors having difficulty in federating their initiatives while D Trump continues to blow hot and cold on customs duties.

Investors keep in mind the date of April 2, a deadline to which Donald Trump must set up reciprocal customs duties. Market operators hope, however, that the addition will be ultimately Less salty than initially feared. On Monday, the American president said that “many countries” could initially be spared. According to the Financial Times, Donald Trump teams are looking to base themselves on a robust legal framework. This could lead to less high -term measures.

“I don’t change anything, but the word flexibility is an important word (…). There will be flexibility, but in principle, it is reciprocal,” Donald Trump told journalists on Friday.

In the statistical chapter, the operators learned of the IFO index of the business climate in Germany, released slightly at 86.7, very close to the target. The economic cycle matrix tool clearly shows a trajectory of the “crisis” box to the “recovery” box.

But Tuesday’s big date on the statistical component was the sacro-saint of household confidence confidence confidence index (understanding: consumers!) Overseas. An important benchmark at a time when inflationary fears of Trump’s expansionist and anti-immigration policy weigh on the morale of buyers. The indicator missed expectations, going from 100.1 to 92.9.

“Consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month in March, passing under the relatively narrow range which has been prevailing since 2022,” said Stéphanie Guichard, a world’s chief economist, to the Conference Board. “Among the five components of the index, only the evaluation by consumers of the current labor market situation has improved slightly. Their opinions on the current economic situation have weakened, close to neutrality. Consumer expectations were particularly pessimistic, pessimism as to the upcoming economic conjuncture and confidence in employment prospects falling at its lowest level for 12 years. Consumers about their future income, who had maintained themselves quite securely in recent months, has been largely faded, which suggests that concerns about the economy and the labor market have started to spread in the evaluation of their personal situation. “

On the side of the values, L’Oréal fell 0.3%, while Berenberg no longer advises to buy the action of the cosmetics and perfume specialist. The establishment is counting on a growing beauty market of 3.7% this year, less than the projections of the management of the company. Except CAC 40, Exeuil Technologies (the ex Grande Group) rebounded by 8.7% after the publication of its annual results.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the Tuesday session in the green, in narrow margins like the Dow Jones (+0.01%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.46). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.16% to 5,776 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0790. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.20. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.33%. As for the VIX, it was worth 17,150 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the orders of sustainable goods in the United States at 1:30 p.m. on Tuesday.

It should be noted that the east coast of the United States has passed in the summer hour. Consequently, and while waiting for mainland France in turn, Wall Street will open at 2:30 p.m., instead of 3:30 p.m. usually.

Key graphics elements

The tricolor flagship index is typically in the consolidation phase, between the 8,000 symbolic points and the historical summits which it has just brushed. The latter will day for the coming months an intermediate level of resistance, to which the index will attack when it has accumulated enough energy. Only a brutal break in the 7,810 points would ring the alarm.

Consequently, work between 7,810 and 8,000 points in the coming weeks is the graphic scenario of favorite. Scenario fully confirmed by the rupture, in growing volatility, of the 8,000 points on March 11. The RSI, an oscillator for breathtaking movement, is still far from its occurrence zone.

Under the 7,810 points, the technical situation would deteriorate somewhat, with in particular the effect of attraction of gaps formed in January, especially that of the 16, very large.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics