(BFM Stock Exchange) – Tesla Director of Tesla assured on X that the customs surcharge announced by the Trump administration would have “significant” impacts on the automotive group. Several design offices, in contrast, believe that the specialist in electric vehicles has a good chance of doing well, because its production and supplies are extremely local.
What saint should you be devoted to? Elon Musk or financial analysts? The Tesla action in any case dropped by 5.6% Wednesday evening while press information very quickly formalized reported that the United States would establish additional customs duties of 25% on all automotive imports from April 3. Global taxation will increase to 27.5%. This rate will also apply to trucks and key parts of cars, such as engines, or electrical components.
However, the title seems to stabilize his dive. In preview this Thursday, March 27, Tesla wins 0.2% at Wall Street. This is not at all the case for other American car manufacturers. General Motors lost 6.5% in premail after deciding 3.1% on Wednesday. Ford for its part abandons 2.6% after winning 0.1% on Wednesday. Stellantis abandoned 1.8% after falling by 3.6%.
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Limited exemptions
On its social network X (ex-Twitter), Elon Musk launched a warning, writing that “it is important to note that Tesla is not unscathed”. “The impact of customs duties on Tesla remains important,” he added.
“To be clear, this will affect the prices of parts in Tesla cars which come from other countries (than the United States, note). The impact in terms of costs is not trivial,” he also wrote.
As Note Oddo BHF, exemptions, certainly limited, exist for imports of parts respecting the terms of the USMCA free trade agreement (US-Mexico-Canada), free trade agreement that replaced Alena. But these exceptions will only last for the time that the Trump administration establishes a process to apply surcharges on non-American components.
“Very few actors seem to escape negative impact, even before possible countermerships from other countries that could further increase impacts on a global scale,” said Oddo BHF. “With an average selling price of $ 50,000, the additional cost could reach 5,000 to 10,000 dollars for imported vehicles and 5,000 dollars for vehicles assembled in the United States”, the design office. Bernstein calculates a total overall cost of $ 110 billion.
A strong local coloring
Yet analysts agree that Tesla is the group that should get out of it. Simply because the company produces locally. “Tesla would be less exposed to customs duties because its production and assembly are entirely in the United States,” said Dan Ives de Wedbush.
Daniel Röska de Bernstein will qualify Tesla as “clear structural winning”, thanks to its localized production, its high market share and the fact that the group is more isolated than its competitors of commercial risks “.
According to the analyst, more than 60% of the value of its manufactured parts equipping its cars come from the United States, the highest level of all manufacturers, 22% of Mexico and 7% of Canada and 10% in the rest of the world. This rate, called RVC (for “Regional Value Content”) is the big parameter to monitor, because it goes beyond the simple location of the assembly of the automobile.
With this much more local production base than its competitors “the company does not only avoid pain, but it can also gain margin when competitors increase their prices”, continues Daniel Röska.
Tom Narayan of Royal Bank of Canada also judges that Tesla could benefit from these customs surcharge because of her completely domestic production but also “from imports of imports to the United States”. Clearly, many electric vehicles sold in the United States are imported and the surcharge would give Tesla a competitive advantage.
A real threat?
“Elon Musk is one of the rare winners of Trump customs tariffs on the car,” goes so far as to titrate Bloomberg in an analysis.
“The manufacturer of electric vehicles has large factories in California and Texas which produce all the cars it sells in the United States, which isolates it to a greater extent of the new taxes imposed by Trump on automobile imports and key components,” recalls the agency. “Its main rivals, from the South Korean Hyundai Motor Co. to the German Volkswagen AG via the American General Motors Co. will soon be confronted with much higher costs,” she adds.
It remains to be seen also whether these customs tariffs will really be applied by Trump. “We continue to think that this is a form of negotiation and that these prices could change by the end of the week,” judges Dan Ives.
If Tesla could therefore be much more immune than its competitors at customs prices, the company has other problems in its bag. Its sales fall in regions, such as Europe (-40% over a year in February) and China (87% in February according to Royal Bank of Canada). Tesla is penalized by an aging range of products. The group has promised that new “more affordable” models would be launched this year.
Since the start of the year, Tesla action has also been weighed down by Elon Musk’s political ambitions, who decided to pilot an unofficial department in Washington to cut the ax in the expenditure of the American federal state, have been able to worry investors. This department is called “Doge” for “Department of Government Efficiency”. “In short, the word ‘Balance’ failed in Elon Musk and its ability to direct Tesla as managing director …. instead of concentrating all its energy and its time leading its Doge initiative within the Trump administration,” deplored in a recent Dan Ives of Wedbush note.
“We believe that this is a” moment of truth “for Musk and Tesla …. If Musk continues to follow the Doge’s Way at 110% and not to take care of Tesla during this period of turbulence, the damage to the brand will become more and more important, because currently our work on the field shows that less than 5% (very limited) of Tesla owners would hesitate to buy a Tesla again” dissected the analyst.
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