CAC 40: Red dominates

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The CAC 40 closed under the 8,000 symbolic points last week, losing Friday 0.93% at 7,916 points. The automobile and luxury will have suffered particularly in the context of a trade war that intensifies, and with the now immediate approach of major deadlines. So certainly this break in the 8,000 points is not brutal, and we are far from attending a downward sectoral federation, but it is clear that the market has lost a dose of trust there.

“The worst perhaps remains to come: the chief negotiator of the European Union expects the Trump administration to announce customs taxes of around 20% on the European Union as of next week,” warned Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM on Friday. “If they are actually implemented, European growth could take a big hit. In our most pessimistic scenario, if a 20% customs tax is set up with all European goods imported in the United States, this could cost European growth 0.8% of GDP. Knowing that GDP should grow around 1% -1.1% this year, it would mean that the economy is likely to stagnate. Not our central scenario. “

Market operators remain nervous upstream of the date of April 2 to which the United States intends to set up reciprocal customs duties on all of their imports. On Wednesday, Donald Trump had already announced customs surcharge on automotive imports from April 3. These fears about the trade war are starting to spread gradually at the level of American indicators. Especially on the side of the consumer morale index, compiled by the University of Michigan. This confidence index dropped to 57 points in March, after 64.7 points in February.

But the loss of confidence is also to be linked with the publication, Friday, of the PCE index, the favorite measure of the Fed in its appreciation of inflation. These prices increased by 0.4% monthly in February, above a 0.3% consensus. “Figures that immediately aroused the concern of the markets, already largely disturbed by the Trump administration’s pricing policy”, for Grégoire Kounowski, Investment Advisor at Norman K.

“Prudence therefore remains in turn while the next step arrives on April 2. A date that Donald Trump qualifies in advance as” Liberation Day “. In addition to the price measures already applied, this day must mark the entry into force of reciprocal customs duties, but also the 25% additional customs duties on vehicles and automotive parts produced outside the United States, or the end of the exemp 25% for Canada and Mexico.

On the values ​​side, Stellantis (-3.81%), Renault (-3.59%), Forvia (-5.83%) and Valeo (-3.24%) were clearly victims of customs tensions.

Pernod Ricard took the head of the CAC 40 (+2.9%) while Rémy Cointreau won 3%, after the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, spoke of a three-month postponement by China of additional customs of customs duties on the Cognac sector.

Edenred and Pluxee lost 4% and 1.6% respectively, limiting their withdrawal after opening in bright red. In question: a press article evoking a potential caps of restaurant titles commissions. A measure which is however not retained to date by the executive within the framework of the reform envisaged by the Minister of Commerce, Véronique Louwagie, according to our information.

After winning up to 12%, Ubisoft finally turned down (-1.8%). According to a source cited by an analyst, this movement is explained by the adoption of selling positions by certain hedge funds on the title, explains Reuters. The title had taken advantage of the announcement Thursday evening of the creation of a new subsidiary in which Tencent will return to capital. This will result in a cash supply of just over 1 billion euros.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished in bright red, like the Dow Jones (-1.69%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-2.70%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, lost 1.97% to 5,580 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,0810. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 69.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.18%. As for the VIX, it was worth 21.70 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the PMI of Chicago at 3:45 pm.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework evolves, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. This rupture is not formally supported by volumes and a sectoral federation, or even a GAP, but it is sufficiently symbolic to cause a loss of progressive confidence in the spirits. Major questioning, in progress for several weeks, can now result in a continuation of the reflux under the long mobile average at 50 days (in orange).

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8000.00 points.

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Daily data graphics