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The euro, as much under pressure as the dollar in the intense trade war caused by the White House, continued its lateralization movement, near the $ 1,0820 on Monday, on the eve of what Trump calls with finesse on the day of “liberation”. It is indeed on April 02 that the head of the American federal executive must accurately reveal the surcharges applied to such a country, such a product, and under what conditions.
“Caution remains in turn while the next step arrives on April 2,” insists the manager in asset management. “A date that Donald Trump qualifies in advance as” Liberation Day “. In addition to the price measures already applied, this day must mark the entry into force of reciprocal customs duties, but also the 25% of additional customs duties on vehicles and car spare parts produced outside the United States, or the end of the exemption from 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico.
“Measures that could further reduce Fed’s room for maneuver regarding new rate drops.” Estimating the number of times the Fed will lower its rates this year is now a mission impossible to the chagrin of the markets, which by nature hate their functioning, uncertainty.
The procrastination, the brutal threats, then the sudden reculades of Donald Trump on customs duties begin to tire the morale of the operators by weighing on the appetite for the risk. Tokyo, as a non -exhaustive example, dived 4% at the end on Monday, while the VIX, the fear index suddenly ironed the 20 points mark.
But basically what to really expect tomorrow? It is a major question mark for markets which by nature hate uncertainty.
“Between Donald Trump’s constant overbidding, his incessant back and forth and his notorious contradictions, we are close to indigestion. It is indeed difficult to find ourselves when, in the same sentence, Donald Trump evokes both the reciprocal customs duties which will be announced on April 2, described as” Liberation Day “, to put an end to what he describes as a” American for years, and “the surprise of people who will see her leniency”, notes in a note Thomas GIUDICI, head of the bond management of Auris Gestion.
“For the time being, nothing seems to be able to stop Donald Trump. Nevertheless the principle of reality (financial or economic) will end, sooner or later, by winning. The” day of liberation “, failing to release the markets, will lift at least uncertainty on the duties of applied customs. We bet that it is a maximum before inevitable negotiations. The European Union did not wait for this” release ” Concessions … “
In the statistical chapter, the burners have just taken note of the final data of the PMI manufacturer in the euro zone in final data, at 48.6 points, very close to the first estimates.
Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at the commercial Hamburg Bank, brought the following lighting: “If the PMI index has straightened up in Germany and France, the two main economies in the euro zone, it has however folded in Italy, while it established itself below 50.0 of without change for a second consecutive month in Spain after having a relatively high level at a relatively high level. Hopefully budgetary spending will increase significantly in Germany, and that this increase will also benefit other countries in the region, thus stimulating growth throughout the euro zone.
In addition, the very first estimates of inflation within the meaning of retail prices in the euro zone, excluding volatile elements, came out for March at +2.4% at an annual rate, compared to 2.3% anticipated.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,0815 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The crossing in significant volatility of $ 1,0608 changes the situation on the configuration of the currency pair, which has just validated a resumption of support on a long mobile average, at 50 days (in orange), which begins a resource figure. The scenario of a fast melting towards the perfect parity (€ 1 = $ 1) is invalidated. This consolidation comes in terminal phase in contact with the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), on the tightening background of Bollinger strips.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,0758 USD and the resistance at USD 1,0102.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
