(Reuters) – The World Trade War launched by US President Donald Trump and its consequences on the world markets have stopped the solid growth forecasts for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for the start of 2025.

Admittedly, the volume of M&A increased by 12.6% in the first quarter of 2025 over one year at 984.38 billion dollars, according to the DEALOGIC data compiled for Reuters. But this increase is taken almost entirely by the Asia-Pacific region where three major public enterprises transactions announced by China on Sunday and a port transaction under the impulse of Trump made it possible to almost double the volume of M&A over one year at 264.46 billion dollars.

In the rest of the world, transactions are at half mast compared to expectations, like the United States, which represent half of the world’s transactions and whose volume of M&A has melted by 13% over one year to 436.5 billion dollars, or Europe with a slight 9% rebound over a year at 190.18 billion dollars.

“A large part of the transactions announced during the first quarter were carried out last year, at a time when exuberance was at its height because of the arrival of a new administration in the United States, which expected tax reductions and deregulation,” said Cassander Verwey, co-responsible for mergers and acquisitions for Europe, the Middle East and Africa within JPMorgan.

“In view of the developments in recent weeks, the reality is that exuberance has left the market and that uncertainty has settled,” she concluded.

The IPOs (IPO) are also gray mine, down 17.7% by one per 1,065 operations according to Dealogic.

Wall Street leaders and analysts had nevertheless predicted an exceptional 2025 year for financial transactions, expecting Donald Trump to reduce regulations, lower taxes and adopt policies more favorable to businesses. But American actions have dropped sharply since its inauguration, and the hoped -for scenario seems less likely day by day, according to analysts and negotiators.

Optimism factors resist, however, as the acquisition of the wiz cloud specialist by Google for $ 32 billion made partly possible by a more tolerant approach to the Trump administration on antitrust exams.

(Written by Echo Wang and Charlie Conchie in New-York and Anousha Sakoui in London; Bertrand de Meyer, edited by Blandine Hénault)

Copyright © 2025 Thomson Reuters