CAC 40: After a black Thursday, the Vix exceeds 30

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Helcomed by the magnitude of customs duties announced by D Trump, CAC 40 lost 3.31% to 7,598 points, now in the midst of the GAP of January 16. Besides Rhine, the Dax lost a little more than 3%, Germany being worried about its exports, notably automobiles towards the United States. But it is on the American clues themselves that the freezing wind is most felt. Dow Jones shows a loss of 4% Thursday, and the Nasdaq composite of … 6%!

As a reminder, Donald Trump has made his threat, and plunged international trade into a new era. Wednesday April 02, the day of the “Liberation” promised for months by the tenant of the White House, will indeed have date, as little glorious as it is … During a press conference in Washington, the real estate magnate exhibited a panel with three columns: the first, with the geographic areas for as many commercial “partners”, the second with customs taxes that he says to suffer from these partners, The taxes he will now impose on the entrance to the products on his territory.

Fallaious second column where you could read 90% for Vietnam, 46% for Japan, or 39% for the European Union. “A calculation that does not respond to any known and admitted economic equation”, for our colleagues from the world who have succeeded in “cracking the code: the Trump administration simply divided the American bilateral trade deficit with these countries by the amount of exports of these countries in the United States. Thus, the trade deficit (for goods, outside services) of the United States with the European Union was 235 billion dollars in 2024, Exported $ 605 billion in goods in the United States the same year.

For the third column, which interests the markets at the highest point, these are customs surcharges adding to existing barriers: 34% for China, 20% for the European Union, 24% for Japan, 26% for India, for example. And this with a 10% floor for all countries of the world. Never since the 1930s have customs barriers have been erected so high. A rhetoric of the fortress was developed by D Trump in the gardens of the White House: “Our country was looted, devastated and ransacked by enemy but also allied nations”, he complained to justify this brutal increase in the taxation of imports. And to create according to him the conditions for an industrial renewal, thanks to the relocation of factories to the United States. “Any response from the countries concerned will cause climbing customs duties,” then threatened the subtle 47th President of the United States.

This is “which brings the United States back to a level of customs duties higher than that of the 1930s”, observes the Asteres cabinet. “In the vision of Peter Navarro, Donald Trump’s official advisor on business issues, imports mechanically reduce GDP, a misleading vision of the economy. In addition, even if the United States would increase their industrial production enough to make up for its trade deficit (which customs duties will not allow), it would not result in a substantial increase in the economy American. “

On the values, technology, automotive, luxury and bank was particularly under pressure, in the non-exhaustive image of Forvia (-6.05%), Stellantis (-8.12%), Essilorluxottica (-7.21%), Kering (-7.51%), Société Générale (-5.26%) or BNP-Paribas (-5.21%).

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares have seen as a preamble known a nightmare session. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, melted from 4.84% to 5,396 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1060. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 66.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 3.98%. As for the VIX, it was worth 30,02 at the last fence of the S & P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow in priority the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report on American private employment health (excluding agriculture) in March, at 2:30 p.m. The unemployment rate is expected to be stable at 4.1% of the working population.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework evolves, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. This rupture is not formally supported by volumes and a sectoral federation, or even a GAP, but it is sufficiently symbolic to cause a loss of progressive confidence in the spirits. Major questioning, in progress for several weeks, can now result in a continuation of the reflux under the long mobile average at 50 days (in orange).

The GAP attraction effect of January 16 (low terminal at 7,514 points) will now be felt. From the 7,465 points, a contestation reaction can occur, a reaction whose consistency will be gauged in the light of the volumes of transactions.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This lowering scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7690.00 points.

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