CAC 40: a relative relief

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In the wake of the “truce” announced by D Trump in the trade war he led against the whole world, the CAC 40 opened in very high rise Thursday, before the initials gradually stretch. The index has still managed to keep +3.83% increase in closing, at 7,126 points, leaving a gap on both sides of the highly symbolic threshold of the 7,000 points.

As a reminder, Wednesday evening, the unpredictable tenant of the White House announced a 90 -day break on the customs surcharges they had revealed on April 2. More precisely, customs duties for all countries will be reduced to 10% during this period. A notable exception: China. The United States has decided to increase the taxation rate of Chinese products at 125%, compared to 104% previously. With the other countries, a phase of negotiations will now open to try to achieve agreements. On Truth Social, Donald Trump justified his flip-flop by explaining that 75 countries had started discussions with the United States to find solutions while abstaining from taking reprisals. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, explained that “it was his strategy” from the start.

“The situation remains very uncertain,” warns Dina Ting, head of the management of global index portfolios at Franklin Templeton ETF. “The precise impact on global supply chains, business dynamics and investment portfolios remains to be determined. Especially since real reorientations of commercial partnerships outside the United States are already observed. This context further strengthens the relevance of diversification.” Especially since we enter the season of quarterly publications, whose guidance will be, in terms of the violence of the trade war, difficult to constitute, and to interpret.

“The results of American companies will be followed closely in the coming weeks. Consumers and companies saying that it is necessary to buy now to avoid customs duties, some figures could be distorted. Financial forecasts will also be scrutinized”, for César Pérez Ruiz, Chief Investment Officer of Pictet Wealth Management.

In the statistical chapter, Thursday’s session will have been dominated by the publication of consumer prices in the United States for the month of March. Excluding power and energy (data core), ICCs have highly moderate their increase, by 0.1% against a target at 0.3%.

On the component of values, files that have been the most abused since April 02 have rebounded with a strong amplification effect, like Safran (+5.74%), Forvia (+6.72%), or Saint Gobain (+7.03%).

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished Thursday in the red, like the Dow Jones (-2.50%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-4.31%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, again tilted in the red, losing 3.46% at 5,268 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1270. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 60.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.43%. As for the Vix, it was worth 40.72 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow primarily production prices across the Atlantic at 2:30 p.m. and the U-confidence U-Mich index of American consumer, in preliminary data, at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework is upset, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. Rupture which was followed by intense clearances, in powerful volumes. The GAP of January 16 is now fully filled, without any reaction from the courses. Worse, a crossing part (7,552 – 7,585 points). In two sessions, Thursday 03 and Friday 04 April, the flagship index lost nearly 520 points, and switched to the red for its assessment since 01/01. Monday April 07, once again showed the extreme psychological tension of a market at the heart of a wave of intense clearances. Abdication is close.

In the immediate future an attempt to rebalance, not without nervousness, is the privileged scenario.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7465.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 6712.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics