EUR/USD: at the highest since February 2022

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While the American 10 years, however, finds a few colors, the dollar suffers more and more, against a backdrop of loss of confidence in the hitherto hegemonic role of the greenback in world trade, and against a backdrop of fear of a marked slowdown in the American economy at the heart of an intense trade war, associated with a return of inflation.

However, it is a moment of truce that we live in this trade war launched by the White House. -The who did not prevent the main actions indices, on both sides of the Pacific and on both sides of the Atlantic, from quickly rebuilding in negative territory after a brief relief.

As a reminder, Wednesday evening, the unpredictable tenant of the White House announced a 90 -day break on the customs surcharges they had revealed on April 2. More precisely, customs duties for all countries will be reduced to 10% during this period. A notable exception: China. The United States has decided to increase the taxation rate of Chinese products at 125%, compared to 104% previously. With the other countries, a phase of negotiations will now open to try to achieve agreements. On Truth Social, Donald Trump justified his flip-flop by explaining that 75 countries had started discussions with the United States to find solutions while abstaining from taking reprisals. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, explained that “it was his strategy” from the start.

And let’s not forget that the truce does not concern all countries. The exception, and not the least, is that of China, for which the barriers at the entrance experience an escalation. Alone not to have benefited from this break, China must now face exorbitant customs duties of 145%. This Friday, it organizes its response, by taxing American products at 125% this Saturday.

This crisis of confidence which weighs heavily on the greenback is measured by the dynamics of the Dollar Index, that is to say the value of the greenback compared to a basket of major currencies. He was flirting with the 110s at the start of the year, and has just melted below the symbolic threshold of the 100, at 99.22 per hour, write the analysis.

“On April 2, 2025, the” Liberation Day “according to Donald Trump, bears his name badly. It should be called on the day of the Grand Sabordage, that is to say this day when the first world economic power opted for isolationism”, contrasts Philippe Crevel in his eco letter from April. M Crevel adds that ‘the idea that the United States would be exploited by foreign, even humiliated countries, is a view of the mind. In an imperial system, the center benefits from peripheral regions. This was the case for ancient Rome, and closer to us, for the United Kingdom. The resulting trade deficit is the expression of a division of labor: deficit for the United States, compensated by transfers of services and capital. “

In the statistical chapter, Thursday’s session will have been dominated by the publication of consumer prices in the United States for the month of March. Excluding power and energy (Core data), CPIs have highly moderate their increase, by 0.1% against a 0.3% target. This Friday, to follow primarily production prices across the Atlantic at 2:30 p.m. and the US-consumer-consumer-consumer index, in preliminary data, at 4:00 p.m. The latter indicator, a very followed barometer, is expected to decrease from 57 to 54 points.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1415 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Consolidation in triangle from 04 to 09 April is now over, the pair of currencies being violently out from the top. The energy released is important, but the ease with which the Eurusd shatters the resistances augurs for a pursuit of height. An accumulation zone between 1,1460 and 1,1674 is identified, as well as a bullish lens $ 1,1970.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1412 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,1969 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1249 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 557 pips and the risk of loss is 163 pips.

Daily data graphics