(BFM Stock Exchange) – The risks linked to customs duties announced by the US administration and then suspended for some by Donald Trump raises fears of a contraction of the luxury market this year. But in the general opinion of analysts, Hermès is the group of the sector the best positioned to off.

Customs surcharge brandished by Donald Trump last week could change the game for luxury on the stock market. This even if the American administration decided on Wednesday evening to stay, by acting a 90 -day “break” on these customs duties for all countries, with the notable exception of China.

The uncertainty and especially the risks associated with the economic consequences of these rights are, certainly attenuated. But they have completely disappeared. If the American administration was still changing its rifle and confirmed these surcharges, luxury would have a good chance of suffering from it.

On Monday, Bernstein lowered its market forecast for the entire sector, now retaining a 2% contraction against growth of 5%, previously. Or a colossal revision of seven percentage points.

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The most defensive value, even ahead of Ferrari

The financial intermediary is not really worried about the impacts of “first order” on luxury, that is to say the repercussions in terms of price. Bernstein estimates that these customs surcharges could be neutralized by luxury groups if they pass price increases ranging from 1% to 4%. “It is less than the 5% to 7% of price inflation in comparable data that we have found in the sector in the last 50 years,” highlights the financial intermediary.

“What concerns us are the effects of second and third order: uncertainty, the recent stock market crash, the devaluation of the dollar and the threat of a global recession,” warns Bernstein.

HSBC is a little more optimistic. The Sino-British bank was stood out, in a note published Wednesday, on a stable market in 2025, however evoking “a lost year”.

For its part, Deutsche Bank, also feared Wednesday that the growth of the sector was penalized by the fall in equity markets – which weighs on the confidence of luxury customers – and by generalized uncertainty. Consequently, the German bank considered that the resumption of the sector’s request would be delayed.

However, a constant returns to the analyzes of the various design offices: Hermès is well placed to do well. And if the customs duties of the United States are finally applied, the group will still have the right assets to distinguish itself among its rivals.

Bernstein believes that the Sellier-Maroquerier is the value of the most defensive luxury among all players in the sector in Europe, including Ferrari.

“The Ferrari consumer base is much narrower and easier, while Hermès is aimed at a larger number of consumers who can be more exposed to the slowdown in macroeconomic conditions,” says Bernstein.

The “most qualitative” value

Hermès, like Richemont, moreover, also harvested “the fruits” of his discipline on prices during the pandemic, the saddler having then increased his prices less than his competitors, adds the financial intermediary, adds Bernstein.

Deutsche Bank has even passed on Wednesday on Hermès on Wednesday, when she had advice to “keep” previously.

“Hermès is widely recognized as the luxury product company listed on the most qualitative, the most differentiated and the most defensive,” explains the German bank.

“Macroeconomic uncertainty before persisting, we prefer the strength of the Hermès brand as the best way to navigate in 2025,” adds the establishment.

Hermès’ corporate model, in particular in the most important segment of leather goods, is based on an offer limited by production capacities, which makes it possible to better control the volumes, prices and margins that competitors, she adds.

“We have it for her money”

“The demand sustained for the Birkin and Kelly flagship bags helps support sales of other categories and Hermès offers more accessible prices in fields such as silk and perfumes,” recalls the establishment. “There is little domain in which Hermès is not the best student in the class,” says the bank.

Certainly the action is expensive, exchanging almost 50 times the benefits expected this year against less than 20 times for a group like LVMH. “But, as for a quality handbag, we have for his money,” concludes Deutsche Bank.

“The extraordinary power of fixing of Hermès prices is reinforced by its strategy of creation of” ‘rarity’, fueled by a global demand that is always strong “, appreciates the independent alphavalue design office.” The unequaled attraction of the Hermès brand, supported by its distinctive marketing strategy, allows the group to outperform, even under difficult market conditions “, he adds.

HSBC judged on Wednesday that the recent fall in the title was an opportunity to position itself on its action, as for the other quality values ​​in the sector, namely LVMH and Richemont, the owner of Cartier.

Hermès has relatively well resisted the stock market turbulence. The luxury group lost, certainly 8.3%, out of the five sessions from April 3, the one that followed the announcement of customs surcharge, on April 9, before Trump announced the “break” on these surcharges. But this withdrawal is significantly lower than those of LVMH (-13.35%), Kering (-18.3%) and CAC 40 (-12.7%) over the same period.

So to see if Hermès will be up to the hopes of the expectations of analysts on the stock market. Pending the group will publish its sales of the first quarter on April 17, next Thursday.