CAC 40: Always in the middle of a vague price

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After a very prolonged weekend, four days for Easter, CAC 40 resumes its quotes this Tuesday, according to new developments in the trade war carried out by Trump against the rest of the world, and especially against China.

Last episode to date, Washington has imposed new restrictions on the exports of American semiconductors to China. Including those of AMD and NVIDIA which are direct victims … These new commercial retaliation measures logically feed the tensions between the two world superpowers. Donald Trump has also opened an investigation to import importance from so -called “critical” minerals, such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, rare earths as well as products, part of the manufacturing requires the use of these resources.

A trade war which came to hit the BCE Governors’ Council which ended on Thursday, unsurprisingly, with a 25 basis drop in its main key rate.

“The fears that weigh on growth within the euro zone have therefore led to a new softening of monetary policy. Of course, certain voices are already rising to alert on the inflationary risk that would cause a drop in cumulative rates to an increase in customs tariffs. Until then, inflation has continued to slow down in the euro zone. It fell to 2.2% in March. unemployment is 6.1%, or its lowest level since the creation of the single currency, “commented Grégoire Kounowski, an Advisor Investment at Norman K, who advances the following comparison with the Fed:

“During this time, in the United States, the Fed is much more prudent. The president of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell, believes that Trump’s trade policy jeopardizes the objectives of the monetary institution, namely the full employment and the maintenance of inflation around 2 %. He also underlines that customs duties are” considerably higher than expected “and that it will have an impact on economic growth. Powell suggested that the Fed would give priority to the fight against inflation rather than the fight against unemployment. “

In the statistical chapter, two meetings Thursday, first with weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, down to 215,000 new units, and the manufacturing index Philly Fed then, in free fall at -26.4 points.

On the values ​​side, Hermès rendered 3.2% after revealing quarterly growth of 7% in comparable data, which stands slightly lower than expectations. On the side of the SBF 120, Pluxee jumped 18.1% after having raised its prospect of growth from its raw margin of recurring operating for its year ended at the end of August. EXAIL Technologies appreciated 1.60%. The group specializing in high technologies in navigation systems and autonomous robotics confirms its annual objectives after having unveiled a favorable commercial dynamic in the first quarter.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the quotes resumed yesterday for the actions. The Dow Jones lost 2.48% and the Nasdaq composite 2.55%, in a context of intense trade war with Beijing. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted 2.36% to 5,158 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1540. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.40%. As for the Vix, it was worth 33.80 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the manufacturing index of the Fed de Richmond at 4:00 p.m. To follow also this afternoon, an interview with C Lagarde, president of the Fed, on CNBC.

Key graphics elements

The technical framework is upset, with a break in the psychological pivot threshold of the 8,000 points at the end of the week 13. Rupture which was followed by intense clearances, in powerful volumes. The GAP of January 16 is now fully filled, without any reaction from the courses. Worse, a crossing part (7,552 – 7,585 points). In two sessions, Thursday 03 and Friday 04 April, the flagship index lost nearly 520 points, and switched to the red for its assessment since 01/01. Monday April 07, once again showed the extreme psychological tension of a market at the heart of a wave of intense clearances. Abdication is close.

In the immediate future an attempt to rebalance, not without nervousness, constitutes the privileged scenario. An outing for the bottom of a bevel figure would cause an increase in volatility, in terms of the nervousness known at the inlet of the graphic figure.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7390.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics