EUR/USD: Macroeconomic data flow to monitor

Key graphics elements

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Burkers will have a lot to do today, faced with an avalanche of macroeconomic statistics likely to significantly influence the markets. The afternoon will start at 2:00 p.m. (French time) with the publication of the consumer price index (IPC) in Germany, which will provide lighting on the inflationary trajectory within the first economy in the euro zone. At 2:15 p.m., ADP figures concerning job creations in the US private sector will be closely scrutinized, as an advanced employment of the official employment report. At 2:30 p.m., the market will turn its attention to the first estimate of quarterly GDP in the United States, a decisive given to assess the solidity of growth. The afternoon will continue with the PMI index of Chicago at 3:45 p.m., before the long-awaited publication of the PCE and PCE Core indices at 4:00 p.m.-measures favored by the Federal Reserve to assess underlying inflation.

These publications intervene in a context of deterioration of the economic climate, highlighted by the data published yesterday. The confidence of American consumers has contracted for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level in almost five years, due to persistent concerns about the economy and the job market. At the same time, job offers (JOLTS) fell to 7.19 million in March, compared to 7.48 million in February, a level lower than expectations, reflecting a drop in labor demand. This information did not allow the dollar to regain ground, leaving the euro stabilizing around the 1.14 zone.

The trade war also remains a concern for investors. Donald Trump’s recent statements have fueled volatility, without reassuring markets. Stephen Miran, economic advisor of the president, failed to convince the big investors during a meeting on the pricing strategy, deemed inconsistent by certain participants. In this climate of uncertainty, the yield of treasury bills at 10 years old fell, from 4.59 % to 4.17 %. On the industry side, Trump has confirmed a partial reduction in customs duties on automotive parts, justly avoiding the entry into force of a 25 %tax, with exemptions provided for American producers and partners with the USMCA agreement.

Technically, the single currency continues to consolidate flat, pending key statistics expected this afternoon. Particular attention will be paid to the reaction of the courses around the mobile average 20 days: a rebound on this technical level could offer an opportunity to reintegrate the short -term upward trend currently in place.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

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