CAC 40: London and Beijing negotiate with Washington

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It will first be noted that despite the public nature of this May 8 (victory 1945), the Paris Stock Exchange will remain open, and this usual conditions of schedules and ratings.

The Parisian flagship index, the CAC40, reflected 0.91% on Wednesday, weighted by Sanofi, and on the reserve – without word play – before the outcome (after the closure) of the meeting of the Fed Monetary Policy Committee. The federal reserve has undoubtedly left guiding rates unchanged in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, emphasizing risks on inflation and unemployment.

The market is ultimately fairly wait-and-see, on this side of the Atlantic in any case, pending new developments in the trade war carried out by Trump against … the rest of the world! According to several American media, a first trade agreement should be signed between Washington and the United Kingdom during the day. And this while American and Chinese delegations must meet in Bern, Switzerland this weekend.

“The two parties announced discussions in Switzerland on Saturday and Sunday, under the direction of the secretary of the Treasury Bessent and the GREER trade representative for the United States, and the Vice-Prime Minister Lifeng for China,” said Deutsche Bank. “These would be the first substantive discussions between the two largest economies in the world since the introduction, a month ago, of 125%prohibitive customs surcharge,” added the German bank.

On the values ​​side, Legrand resumed 3% after giving greater growth in the expectations in the first quarter. Red lantern of the CAC 40, Sanofi closing in net with 4.3%, penalized like other pharmaceutical groups by the appointment of Vinay Prasad, an oncologist deemed hostile to industry, at a key position of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the American health authority. Excluding CAC 40, JCDecaux was sanctioned (-6.6%) for delivering prospects for the second quarter below expectations.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares grabbed a few points on Wednesday, like the Dow Jones (+0.70%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.27%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.43% to 5,631 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1300. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 58.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.29%. As for the Vix, it was worth 23.55 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7690.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7512.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics