(BFM Stock Exchange) – The prices of black gold on the markets have been a clear decline since the beginning of the year, weighed down by the uncertainty over demand caused by Donald Trump’s policy, as well as by the desire of the producing countries to increase production.

The equity markets are hardly the only ones to have suffered from Donald Trump’s procrastination on his economic and commercial policy.

The courses of black gold suffer and not just a little. The two major contracts, the Brent de Mer du Nord and the American WTI listed in New York, fell at lowest since February 2021 on Monday, with a Brent close to the $ 58 a barrel.

The oil prices then resumed the hair of the beast during the week, thanks in particular to signs of relaxation in the trade war started by Donald Trump.

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But over the whole of 2025, oil remains largely in the red. Northern sea brent drops 15.1%

Since the start of the year when the American WTI side in New York has lost 15.7%.

“Oil prices have been under pressure, the markets starting to assess the repercussions of American trade policies and the climbing of trade conflict with China, a dispute that should slow down economic activity and reduce the demand for oil,” notes Ricaro Evangelista, of Activtrade.

Committed to an showdown with heavy surcharges, the United States and China represent the two largest oil consumers in the world, with 20 million and 15.15 million barrels per day respectively. China also remains the first importer of crude in the world.

American customs duties will necessarily have a negative impact on the two economies, even if they are in essence impossible to assess since constantly changing. The IMF integrated this risk in its latest forecasts, sealing its growth projection from the United States for 2025 to 1.8% against 2.7% previously. For China, the fund brought back its forecast to 4%, compared to 4.6% before.

Lack of discipline on the OPEC side

The fall in black gold courses is correlated with that of equity markets, notes, moreover, UBS, “which generally indicates that factors linked to demand are at the origin of prices”. The Swiss Bank concludes that the risk of recession remain the great subject of concern of the market.

“The unexpected contraction of 0.3% of the US economy in the first quarter feared a potential recession, which has further reduced the prospects for oil demand,” notes Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital.

The prospects on the side of the offer are not very radiant either for the courses of black gold. On Monday, petroleum found itself under pressure following the decision of OPEC+members, a cartel which brings together members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) as well as their allies.

These countries announced last Saturday that they were going to add 411,000 barrels per day of production in June, the same level as in May. Previously, they intended to raise daily production up to 137,000 barrels over the sixth month of the year.

This decisions reflects the desire to tame a certain indiscipline within the cartel. “After a half-decennia of important OPEC+ reductions (production) of OPEC+ to support a barrel, the cartel cheaters, like Kazakhstan and Iraq, have surpassed quotas, forcing their hand to Saudi Arabia, which was furious,” observes Stephen Innes of Spi Am.

UBS thus believes that the recent production increases announced constitute a warning launched at Iraq and Kazakhstan to emphasize that their “franc-tiver” attitude penalizes the cohesion of the cartel.

Scrambled prospects

In this context, can oil still fall more? The different strategists diverge somewhat. If, on the whole, they do not think that oil will drop much more, they spread a rebound.

Cited by Bloomberg, Royal Bank of Canada judges that a wti at 50 dollars a barrel, against 60 dollars currently, is the next “key” level to monitor. Morgan Stanley, also quoted by the agency, lowered five dollars, to 62.5 dollars, a barrel its forecast for the Brent in the third and fourth quarters, so little or less the current course, around 63.5 dollars per barrel.

Goldman Sachs also seriously saved his projections, of 2.5 dollars per barrel on average. The American bank tables a Brent around 60 dollars per barrel on average for the remaining of 2025 then at 56 dollars for the year 2026. For WTI, the establishment retains an average course of 56 dollars for the balance of 2025 and 52 dollars per barrel for 2026. In other words, the establishment has a slightly down opinion.

“We remain convinced that the importance of unused capacities and the high risk of recession pose risks of decrease on oil prices, despite relatively tight fundamentals on the SPOT market (‘in cash, editor’s note),” judges the American bank.

Goldman Sachs thinks that OPEC+ will further drop its production by around 410,000 barrels in July. The bank warns that if the cartel completely removes the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels which had been announced at the end of 2023 and then extended until the beginning of 2025, the Brent could fall between a little less than 50 dollars per barrel and around 40 dollars per barrel, depending on the hypotheses chosen.

“Given the current concerns in excess supply and fragile perspectives of demand, the oil market is doomed to continuous short -term volatility,” anticipates Naeem Aslam.

The situation is all the more complex since low oil prices remain the avowed objective of the Trump administration, the latter having several a barrel course at 50 dollars.

This, even if such a target would fully fall into contradiction with another ambition from the current government, namely producing 3 million barrels of raw more per day in the United States by 2028. According to Rystad Energy, American oil producers are already struggling to defend their margins with a barrel of WTI at 60 dollars a barrel. The cabinet figures at 62.5 dollars per barrel, the “All in” deadline, the profitability threshold which includes the payment of dividends and payments of interest on the debt, for a large part of these actors.

With this in mind, Stephen Innes stresses that Donald Trump’s journey should be monitored in mid-May to the Gulf countries.

Ricardo Evangelista believes that a potential warming between Beijing and Washington could constitute a catalyst. “These two countries being the largest oil consumers in the world, any appeasement of tensions between them is likely to improve the prospects of global oil demand and to open the way for new increases in crude prices,” he said.

On Saturday and Sunday, the American secretary to the Treasury, Scott Bessent, and the representative in trade, Jamieson Greer, will in any case meet members of the Chinese government in an attempt to advance on the thorny subjects of customs duties.