EUR/USD: New price catalyst

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The dollar found a little color – green, naturally! – After a weekend of discussions between Chinese and American delegations in Switzerland, on a “overhaul” of their reciprocal customs rights. Following this meeting in Geneva between several members of the American and Chinese executives, including the secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, the two countries published a joint statement on Monday, May 12.

The two parts are suitable for suspending part of the customs surcharges for 90 days that they have inflicted each other. Scott Bessent told him to journalists that Washington would decrease 115 percentage points with customs surcharges hitting China to fall to 30%, AFP reports. China, it would drop from 125% to 10%, according to the indications of the American administration.

Earlier in the past week, the markets were able to assess the agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, described as “capital” by Donald Trump. This agreement announced Thursday brings customs duties to 10% for many imports from the United Kingdom.

“The agreement places the United Kingdom in a more unfavorable position than before the ‘Liberation Day’, even if the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer described it as a historic victory ‘between the two countries,” said Deutsche Bank. “The details are few, with a few sectoral alleviating, but the basic price of 10% remains in place,” sums up UBS.

“This is good news. I must say that this is good news in a world where the effective rate of customs duties will remain higher than it was before all this begins. I think we have to keep this in mind,” said the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.

In the statistical chapter, “RAS” Thursday concerning the new weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States, at 228,000, very close to the past week, and expectations. Friday morning were published the monthly industry production data in Italy, the third economic power in the euro zone. They only increased in March 0.1%, against expectations much more optimistic at +0.4%.

If the week that opens begins in flat calm on the front of “macros” publications, the agenda will be densified strongly tomorrow with the ZEW index of trust in the German economy and consumer prices in the United States.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against 1,1140$ about.

Key graphics elements

The euro / dollar is currently in the phase of an important graphic test: that of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), the last resumption of support dating from the sweater February 28. A rupture of this trend curve would release additional sales energy.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1012 and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics