CAC 40: The Vix melts under 20

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Against the background of appeasement of Sino American trade tensions, the CAC 40 amplified the height of 1.37% to 7,850 points, in volumes in lively increase, after a weekend of meetings between Chinese and USSUs, in Switzerland.

The punitive prices imposed by the two superpowers will be suspended for a period of 3 months. Scott Bessent told him to journalists that Washington would decrease 115 percentage points with customs surcharges hitting China to fall to 30%, AFP reports. China, it would drop from 125% to 10%, according to the indications of the American administration.

This will not erase the concept of trade war on both sides of the Pacific. Trump is doing the Trump. After brutalized, he renegotiates everything. As he would with a supplier as a business manager … The ruthless world of the company, in real estate in this case, remains in its DNA it must be remembered.

On the values ​​side, the files most sensitive to the commercial question in recent months have naturally trusted the upper part of the awards of compartment A side, like Kering (+5.86%), Arkema (+6.04%), Stellantis (+6.53%), LVMH (+7.01%), Valeo (+7.07%), Christian Dior (+7.27%) and Forvia (+8.10%).

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares have powerfully rebounded, especially on the technological part of the coast, like the composite Nasdaq (+4.35%). The Dow Jones won 2.81% and the S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk of fund managers, 3.26%.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1100. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.50. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.45%. As for the Vix, it was worth 18.39 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the ZEW index of trust in the German economy at 10:00 am and prices for consumption in the United States at 2:30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8260.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7690.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics