CAC 40: Ly weightlessness

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The CAC 40 gently caps near the 7,900 points, resuming its breath after a month of rally fueled by a feeling of de -escalation on the trade front led by Trump against the rest of the world. But the operators are not fooled: even if Washington signed with London a tariff agreement, and that a 90 -day moratorium was decided with Beijing, the “background” of the case is not deleted, and Trump will not return to the very concept of customs barrier.

Please note, warns Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion. “After the disappointment of the” Liberation Day “, the financial markets very (too much?) Quickly integrated an outcome favorable to the bilateral negotiations to come on customs duties.”

“”Donald Trump will not come back to the very principle of customs duties And it therefore seems difficult to adopt a more optimistic posture than that already integrated by the markets. Above all, the concrete effects of the trade war on the results of companies do not yet seem completely at the center of attentions. “

Thursday was the day of the week which concentrated most of the American statistical benchmarks. And these publications are generally disappointing. Take retail sales, one of the flagship measures of American consumption. They only increased by 0.1%, excluding cars, missing expectations (+0.3%). Target also missed for the production price index (-0.5% for the widest basket), which does not in itself constitute a disaster in the sense that the figure temporarily distances fears of a resumption of inflation. Furthermore, if the Manufacturer Philly Fed is less than expected (-4.0), the Empire State index, it melts near -10. Ras, on the other hand, on the side of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, stable at 229,000 new units, perfectly at the heart of the target.

In addition, the president of the American Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell said that sudden shocks on the supply of goods or raw materials constituted a difficult challenge for the economy and the Fed. “We may enter a period of more frequent and potentially more persistent tender shock – a challenge that is difficult to take up for the economy and central banks,” said Fed boss.

On the values ​​side, Engie resumed 3.6% after publishing results qualified as “good” by Oddo BHF. Thales won 2.8% while the German Minister for Foreign Affairs Johann Wadephul said he was ready to follow the United States and thus plead for NATO members to devote 5% of their GDP to the Defense. Exosers jumped 8.10%.

Luxury has still accused the blow. Kering dropped 5%, LVMH 3.4%and Hermès contained its 0.35%withdrawal. In a sectoral note published this Thursday, Bank of America expects the activity of the sector in the second quarter to be worse than at the first. The publication of Salvatore Ferragamo (-3.1% in Milan) was also able to throw a cold on the entire compartment. Spirits have also suffered, Rémy Cointreau contracted 3.8% when Pernod Ricard made 1.7% after the French Minister of the Economy, said he had not found common ground for cognac exports to China. Excluding SBF 120, Ubisoft abandoned 18.2% after delivering disappointing prospects for its 2024-2025 fiscal year. The quarterly sales of Maisons du Monde (-9.6%) were also sanctioned.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares are once again completed the session in dispersed order, the Nasdaq composite contracting by 0.18% and the Dow Jones managing to grab 0.65%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.41% to 5,916 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1210. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.41%. As for the Vix, it was worth 17.83 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, to follow the trade balance in the euro zone at 11:00 am and the preliminary data of the American consumer confidence (U-Mich) at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful, but the filling of another GAP, that of March 31, invites you to restraint.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 1.15 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 1.10 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics