EUR/USD: the stars doji are linked

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Buyer and sellers continued to balance the pair of Euro / dollar currencies in the very short term, in a foreign exchange market which wonders about the deep consequences of the trade war, even if concrete advances are to be noted between Washington and respectively, Beijing and London.

“If investors have naturally welcomed these first advances, we can only see the precipitation with which the United States announces still imprecise agreements (and others which should follow), the contours of which remain to be negotiated, which in our opinion, the growing will of the Trump administration to reverse customs duties, in order to mitigate the potentially negative effects on growth and inflation” Thomas GIUDICI, head of bond management of Auris Gestion.

“Concerning the compromise found between London and Washington, although it remains relatively anecdotal taking into account the amounts at stake, it nevertheless offers readability on what could be with other” friends “countries (if the United States still have): a 10% floor rate and orders of American goods (the British airline Iag Iag would place $ 10 billion Boeing). “

Thursday was the day of the week which concentrated most of the American statistical benchmarks. And these publications are generally disappointing. Take retail sales, one of the flagship measures of American consumption. They only increased by 0.1%, excluding cars, missing expectations (+0.3%). Target also missed for the production price index (-0.5% for the widest basket), which does not in itself constitute a disaster in the sense that the figure temporarily distances fears of a resumption of inflation. Furthermore, if the Manufacturer Philly Fed is less than expected (-4.0), the Empire State index, it melts near -10. Ras, on the other hand, on the side of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, stable at 229,000 new units, perfectly at the heart of the target.

Burkers will carefully follow the preliminary data of the U-Mich index (Michigan University) of the confidence of American investors at 4:00 p.m. A very followed barometer, for moon economics where structurally, inner consumption is the most powerful engine of national wealth creation, in front of investment and of course the commercial balance. This advanced indicator is expected up nearly a point at 53.1.

As a reminder, trades are aware of consumer prices on Tuesday in the United States, up 0.2% excluding food and energy in April, against expectations at +0.3%. This is the lowest pace since February 2021.

“American inflation was lower than forecasts in April. The threat of prices increased by customs duties moving away from recent agreements and advanced indicators of the housing sector indicating a slowdown in housing costs, the Federal Reserve will continue to envisage interest rates later in the year,” wrote Ing economists.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1200 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The euro / dollar is currently in the phase of an important graphic test: that of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), the last resumption of support dating from the sweater February 28. A rupture of this trend curve would release additional sales energy. In the immediate future, indecision is noted graphically by a series of stars doji.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at USD 1,1012 and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics