CAC 40: Formation of a low point on the VIX

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

A time penalized by the decision of the Moody’s agency to lower the sovereign state of American, the CAC 40 finally showed resilience to finish in balance, thanks to an excellent first part of the session at Wall Street, yet started in the bright red.

The rating agency has deprived the American debt of its precious note AAA to demo it to AA1 with a stable perspective. Do not panic immediately, far from it, but from the material to correct some excess of the rally of the last 30 days, which constitute a record over a month slippery at Wall Street, on the majority of the equity indices.

“According to the first estimates, which is not final, the United States could see its primary deficit increase up to $ 5.800 billion in the next ten years. This is equivalent to a doubling of the debt growth rate compared to current legislative projections. All other things being equal, the federal debt could reach $ 59,000 billion, or 134% of GDP in 2034 and 211% 2055, against respectively 117% and 156% according to the previous estimates of the Congressional Budget Office “, explains this Monday morning Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.

On the values ​​side, BNP Paribas won 3.45% after kicking off his share buyout program. Getlink, on the other hand, sold 1.55% while the Manager of the Channel Tunnel announced the suspension for two weeks of the Eleclink interconnection, an electric cable that connects the United Kingdom and France via the Channel Tunnel. Getlink estimates that around 20 million euros the shortfall linked to this interruption.

The luxury sector was downwards after the publication of disappointing retail sales in China. Kering finished with a decline by 1.6% while LVMH made 1.05% and Hermès sold almost 1%. “Retail sales increased only by 5.1 %, which is significantly lower than previous expectations and figures. This situation testifies to the persistent weakness of consumer confidence, the current slowdown in the real estate sector continuing to weigh heavily on consumption and private investment,” said Dilin Wu Strategist at Pepperstone.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended at levels close to balance, like the Dow Jones (+0.32%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.02%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, is now just 36 points from the 6,000 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1250. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 61.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.45%. As for the Vix, it was worth 18.14 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Tuesday, to follow the consumer confidence index in the euro zone at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful, but the filling of another GAP, that of March 31, invites you to restraint.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7900.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7690.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics