CAC 40: American budgetary issues come back to the foreground

(BFM Stock Exchange) – This article, with free access, is produced by the research team in BFM Stock Exchange analysis and market strategy. To not miss any opportunity, consult all of the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our privilege space.

The CAC made a foray on Tuesday above the 7,900 points, completely digesting the degradation of the American sovereign note by the Moody’s agency. Kering and Orange came close to the 4% gain.

The rating agency has deprived the American debt of its precious note AAA to demo it to AA1 with a stable perspective.

“Above all, American credit indicators are now significantly deviating from those of the countries still rated AAA by the agency. As an example, the load of interest – including federal debt, that of states and local authorities – represented 12 % of American public revenues in 2024, against only 1.6 % for the average of other countries benefiting from the supreme note”. Finally, the general movement of the pair of currencies, favorable to the euro since the declaration of trade war by Donald Trump, remains bruise above the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), without significant acceleration.

“Any guarded proportion, the case of the United States recalls that of France at the end of last year: little, if not, impact on the short-term markets but an additional alert on the structural degradation of public finances, that it will be necessary to end up treating. This observation is all the more worrying as the current situation does not play in favor of a rapid recovery: growth slows down, what will weigh on tax revenue, and Uncertainties on customs duties reinforce pressures on the economy, “continued the active management decision maker.

In Germany, the Dax 40 crossed the 24,000 -point threshold at the end, at 24,017.30 points while the German Minister of Finance Lars Klingbeil, promised a program aimed at relaunching investment in the country before the summer.

In the statistical chapter, operators have learned of an improvement greater than the expectations of consumer’s confidence over a month in May, according to preliminary data published by the European Commission, from -17 to -15.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares ended the Red Tuesday session, like Dow Jones (-0.27%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.38%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted from 0.39% to 5,940 points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1340. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.52%. As for the Vix, it was worth 18.09 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow in priority gross stocks in the United States at 4.30 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful, but the filling of another GAP, that of March 31, invites you to restraint.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 8260.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7690.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics