CAC 40: Big Beautiful Bill …

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The time is for consolidation on the Paris market whose flagship index, CAC 40, lost 0.40% Wednesday in the immediate vicinity of the 7,900 points, a zone which acts as short -term resistance. The opening should be done in the red this Thursday, in the process of intense questions about the American budgetary situation.

The maximum note, “Standard & Poor’s had withdrawn it in 2011,” followed “by Fitch in 2023. In addition, the arguments put forward by Moody’s to justify this degradation are already relatively well anchored in the heads of investors: flight of debt, digging budget deficits and weighing down the cost of debt”, for Thomas GIUDICI d’Auris Gestion.

So certainly the markets of the markets did not await the decision of the Moody’s agency to degrade the sovereign American note to have a critical look at the public finances of the first economy of the world. And they are even used to putting this type of decision into perspective on the part of a rating agency. Nevertheless, market psychology is impacted. Yesterday Wall Street brushed the 2% loss on the Dow Jones, rich in banking, when the S & P500 lost 1.61%.

The rating agency has deprived the American debt of its precious note AAA to demo it to AA1 with a stable perspective.

“Above all, American credit indicators are now significantly deviating from those of the countries still rated AAA by the agency. As an example, the load of interest – including federal debt, that of states and local authorities – represented 12 % of American public revenues in 2024, against only 1.6 % for the average of other countries benefiting from the supreme note”. . Finally, the general movement of the pair of currencies, favorable to the euro since the declaration of trade war by Donald Trump, remains bruise above the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), without significant acceleration.

“Any guarded proportion, the case of the United States recalls that of France at the end of last year: little, if not, impact on the short-term markets but an additional alert on the structural degradation of public finances, that it will be necessary to end up treating. This observation is all the more worrying as the current situation does not play in favor of a rapid recovery: growth slows down, what will weigh on tax revenue, and Uncertainties on customs duties reinforce pressures on the economy, “continued the active management decision maker.

Another barometer of appetite for the risk, oil prices, which were supported by fears about Potential Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear installations, operated a trend reversal this Wednesday afternoon, weighted by the announcement of a surprise increase in weekly stocks of American oil (+1.3 million barrels).

As for values ​​in Paris, the defense sector was well oriented with the last favorable to this compartment. Donald Trump unveiled his project as an anti-missile shield “Dome of gold” to protect the United States, while the Italian Defense Minister, Guido Crosetto, said Wednesday expect NATO to set the new objective of defense expenditure for member countries between 3.5% and 5% of their gross domestic product, according to Reuters. Exoseens increased by 4.10% and Lumibird jumped 12.6%.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1340. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 62.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.52%. As for the Vix, it was worth 18.09 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, to follow a battery of PMI activity indicators, in very first estimates for the current month, on both sides of the Atlantic.

Key graphics elements

The opening gap, ample on Friday 02 May, showed a first shortness of breath of the catch -up movement initiated on April 08. From now on, the index is under strength of resistance, materialized, among other things by another GAP, downside this one: that of Thursday, April 03, the beginning of the vivid correction linked to the entry into force of prohibitive customs rights. This level is doubled from the mobile average at 50 days (in orange), which is a graphic test. This graphic test is currently in the process of being successful, but the filling of another GAP, that of March 31, invites you to restraint.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 8260.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics