(Reuters) – German economic activity increased much more than initially estimated during the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous one, thanks to the dynamism of exports and manufacturing production before the establishment of customs duties on the part of the United States.

According to a second estimate of the Federal Statistics Office, published on Friday, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the first economy in the euro zone increased by 0.4% over the period, against a first reading of +0.2%.

Manufacturing production and exports recorded stronger growth in March than initially estimated, explained Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistics Office. American importers have accelerated their purchases in anticipation of future customs duties.

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the German economy had contracted by 0.2%, relaunching the fears of a recession characterized by two consecutive quarters of contraction of the activity.

Germany had not experienced such growth of its GDP since the third quarter of 2022, where it had increased by 0.6%.

It remains to be seen whether the first economy in the euro zone will be able to continue this dynamic in the coming months.

In the second quarter, the preventive effect of customs duties on exports and manufacturing production should fade, underlines Cyrus de la Rubia, an economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

However, PMI indicators for May published earlier this week showed an improvement in the activity of the manufacturing segment in Germany and production growth in this sector, he adds.

During the first quarter, German exports increased by 3.2% compared to the previous quarter and household consumption increased by 0.5%.

(Written by Friederike Heine and Maria Martinez, Mara Vîlcu and Blandine Hénault, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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