EUR/USD: a figure of lateralization is emerging

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The euro, one of the most reliable barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, continued its consolidation movement in side canal (rage), which takes shape between 1.12 and 1,1460 $. It is in terms of the amplitude of this graphic band that the doubts, questions and annoyances of the exchange market is expressed about the outcome of the trade war between Washington and Beijing on the one hand and Washington and Brussels on the other hand.

Friday, Donald Trump accused his commercial “partner” [la Chine] not to respect “his agreement”. The Washington Brussels front is also monitored like milk on fire. “It is likely that Europe is again the target of the White House in the coming days. This is likely to stir up volatility on the stock market and to encourage institutionalists to alleviate their positions on actions – a phenomenon which is usual before summer but which could be exacerbated this year because of protectionism,” said Christopher Dembik, of Pictet AM.

Investors also have an eye on the situation in Ukraine in the aftermath of a vast drone attack by kyiv against four Russian aerodromes which affected planes, including bombers, according to AFP. A second session of talks with Russia took place this Monday and ended barely an hour after its opening in Istanbul, reports Reuters. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again proposed on Monday to bring Russian presidents Vladimir Putin on Monday, Ukrainian Volodomyr Zelensky and American Donald Trump, “in Istanbul or Ankara,” said AFP.

In the statistical chapter, the figure of the day is the publication of the first estimates of inflation in the euro zone for the month of May, up 2.3% annual, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. This indicator should strengthen the thesis of a new drop in rates of the European Central Bank (ECB), at its meeting on Thursday. “The ECB is expected to lower its rates again this Thursday, in a context of low growth and slowdown in inflation,” said Felix Feather, an economist at Aberdeen.

“It is likely that this decrease is not the last in the cycle, because monetary officials will no doubt have to support the economy once the complete effects of changes in American customs policy has been felt,” he adds.

See you on Thursday, therefore, for the outcome of the Council of Governors, with the key except huge surprise, a drop in the main rent of the Euro at 2.15%.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1380 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The pair of currencies currently succeeds in the highly important graphic test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). A breath of breath is necessary before the conquest of new highests. That is to say the formation of several support on this trend curve. We have two of us.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics