EUR/USD: technical camisole

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The euro / dollar continued to navigate in rage, now well defined between 1.12 and $ 1,1460, in a foreign exchange market that is more than ever impatient to know permanently, the amounts of customs duties which will impose themselves between them, the great economic powers of the planet. Last major event to date, the decision rendered by an American court on the unconstitutional nature of the White House decrees on pricing surcharges.

“Although the US administration has appealed this decision, the verdict is a serious blow to the commercial strategy of Donald Trump and risks weakening the position of the United States in negotiations, in particular against China”, analyzes Thomas GIUDICI, head of the bond management of Auris Gestion.

As a reminder, the United States Commercial Court, seized by a group of small businesses, has rendered a symbolic decision: the application of customs duties by the White House is unconstitutional, these measures under the congress. The national emergency character argued by Donald Trump to justify this prerogative having not been retained. This decision, certainly expected, will not discourage the American president in his trade war, but it is clear that this camouflet acted as a brake.

“The fact remains that this Donald Trump withdrawal strategy is neither guaranteed nor systematic. The American president embodies a personality typology for whom the ego constitutes a real obstacle to any exit from above. Helping to pass for a weakness, this new acronym could also rob him more in his decisions as illustrated by his new outings on China which would have” without surprise, “without surprise. Details) or its decision to double steel and aluminum taxes at 50%, “continued the active management decision maker.

The acronym mentioned by M GIUDICI is Taco – for “Trump Always Chickens Out” (in good French: “Trump is still deflating”), who appeared in a column of journalist Robert Armstrang of the Financial Times.

Bover also keep an eye on the situation in Ukraine in the aftermath of a vast drone attack by kyiv against four Russian aerodromes which affected planes, including bombers, according to AFP. A second session of talks with Russia took place this Monday and ended barely an hour after its opening in Istanbul, reports Reuters. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again proposed on Monday to bring Russian presidents Vladimir Putin on Monday, Ukrainian Volodomyr Zelensky and American Donald Trump, “in Istanbul or Ankara,” said AFP.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow the ADP report on American employment at 2:15 p.m. on Wednesday and the ISM activity barometer in services at 4:00 p.m. Yesterday the new job offers (JOLTS) exceeded expectations, reassuring the financial community before the publication of the NFP (non -Farm Payrolls) report on Friday. Until then, operators will take note of the results of the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) survey on Wednesday and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits on Thursday.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1385 approximately.

Key graphics elements

The pair of currencies currently succeeds in the highly important graphic test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). A breath of breath is necessary before the conquest of new highests. That is to say the formation of several support on this trend curve. We have two of us.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics