(BFM Stock Exchange) – The group of spirits revealed unsurprisingly degraded results for its year ended at the end of March 2025, in a context of low demand for its bottles. Rémy Cointreau withdrew his 2029-2030 objectives, judging that the conditions were not met to be able to reach them.

Unsurprisingly, the exercise 2024-2025 was not easy for Rémy Cointreau. The low demand on its two major markets, namely China and the United States, has grown with the group of spirits, which has also faced the risks of customs surcharge in these two countries.

On its quirky exercise closed at the end of March 2025, the group which holds the brands Rémy Martin or The Botanist, accused a serious drop in its sales. Thus, Remy Cointreau’s revenues fell into comparable data of 18% over a year, to return below the billion euros, to 984.6 million euros.

Which turns out to be online with the expectations of society. In January, the spirits specialist had warned that the decline in his turnover would be “at the bottom of a range” between 15%and 18%, therefore close to 18%.

Annual accounts in accordance with expectations

Rémy Cointreau had the first time communicated his annual turnover last April. The group therefore unveiled this Wednesday, June 4, all of its financial performance for the year 2024-2025.

At the end of March 2025, the current operating profit (ROC), dropped by 30.5% in comparable data, to 217 million euros. It is slightly better than the consensus quoted by Oddo BHF which tapped on a current operating profit of 215 million euros.

The corresponding margin was crumbled to 21.6% in comparable data against 25.5% in 2023-2024. This withdrawal complies with the expectations of the company which anticipated margin between 21% and 22% in comparable data.

“The cost savings were greater than expected at 85 million euros against 50 million euros indicated. But they only partially compensated for the effect of the sharp drop in turnover in 2024-2025,” said Oddo BHF.

“The 2024-2025 landing is in accordance with guidance (perspectives) and devotes savings beyond expectations at 85 million euros”, notes TP ICAP Midcap.

A “technical rebound” of sales expected in the United States

Regarding his prospects, Rémy Cointreau unveiled his objectives for the entire year in progress 2025-2026. The group aims to grow annual turnover (“Mid Single-Digit”), between 4% and 6% in comparable data.

The group of spirits counts in particular on “a strong technical rebound in sales in the United States from the first quarter”, and a return to organic growth in the second semester.

Oddo BHF notes that the group has adjusted its growth forecasts for the current year. The design office recalled that Rémy Cointre had previously anticipated a return to its rate of growth in turnover in “High single-Digit”, an increase from 7% to 9%.

For the current exercise, Rémy Cointreau also targets organic growth of its operating profit between “High single-Digit” and “Low Double-Digit”, between 7% to 12%. On the other hand, this profitability forecast does not include a potential increase in customs tariffs in China and the United States.

To date, Rémy Cointreau estimates that this potential increase in customs duties could weigh up to a maximum of 100 million euros on the current operating result in 2025-26. The group judges that it is able to “measure up to 35%” of this increase in 2025-2026 “thanks to the implementation of its action plans, a maximum net impact of 65 million euros”.

In this darkest hypothesis, the group of spirits therefore provides for an organic decrease in operating profit between “mid-teens” and “high-teens”, between 15% and 20%. This would drop the margin corresponding to 18% according to the calculations of Oddo BHF.

A withdrawal of the 2029-2030 objectives

This lack of visibility induced by these customs threats in the two key markets of Rémy Cointreau forced him to draw a line on his medium-term goals, announced for the first time in June 2020.

“Given the lack of persistent macroeconomic visibility, geopolitical uncertainties linked to tariff policies in China and the United States and the absence, to date, of a takeover in the United States based on an improvement in underlying trends, Rémy Cointreau considers that the conditions are no longer met to maintain its 2029-2030 objectives”, advances society.

“This decision is also motivated by the upcoming arrival of a new managing director who will define his own roadmap while strategy of the value of the group of decades,” adds the company, which will be led by Franck Marilly from June 25. He succeeded Éric Vallat who announced his resignation on April 9.

The group therefore renounces its objective of achieving a common operating margin of 33% on this horizon. “As supposedly, guidance 2029-2030 is withdrawn,” said TP ICAP Midcap.

With his cognac Rémy Martin, the group of spirits is indeed very exposed to customs risk.

Recall that China is asking for European brandy importers to deposit a deposit with Chinese customs since the end of 2024 in retaliation for the surcharging of the import of electric vehicles made in the Middle Kingdom.

And in mid-May, the French Minister of the Economy, Éric Lombard, said that he had not found common ground with China on Cognac exports.

Ultimately “this publication points to a few positive elements with, among other things, supported cost savings, maintaining the dividend and a more constructive approach on short and long -term objectives,” said Oddo BHF. Rémy Cointreau will offer its general meeting a dividend of 1.5 euro including 1 euro in cash and 0.5 euro with payment option in cash or shares.

“Despite this, the group remains dependent on the state of the Chinese and American markets where the consumption environment remains unfavorable and on which threats of customs barriers still weigh. This is why we believe that despite the valuation of the attractive title at 18 times in terms of PE (ratio course on profits, editor’s note), the prospects for the appreciation of the title remains limited”, concludes the study office which remains case.

On the Paris Stock Exchange, Rémy Cointreau, which had opened down, accelerates the increase now winning almost 5.4% around 11:00 am.