EUR/USD: American employment reassures, Powell can blow

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The euro capped at the top of tidy* In the aftermath of the verdict, much awaited it is true, of the European Central Bank on its guiding rates. The powerful monetary institution of Frankfurt once again lowered its main “rent” of the euro, of 25 base points, by revealing a break in this process under monetary easing.

On the Statistical Front, the big event of the Cambists this Friday rhymes with employment, with the federal monthly report NFP (Non farm payrolls), which has just been published. Here are the main lessons: the unemployment rate first of all, remains stable at 4.2% of the active population. Average time wages are growing a little more than anticipated (+0.4%), and above all, job creations in the private sector, at 139,000, above expectations, completes a solid portrait of employment. What put into perspective the somewhat alarmist publication of the ADP cabinet a little earlier in the week.

And above all enough to bring down the pressure on Jerome Powell’s shoulders, which has been undergoing presidential pressure since the start of the mandate of Trump to soften the rates.

“ADP figures have come out! ‘Too Late’ Powell must now lower the rate. It is incredible! Europe has dropped nine times (sic)!”, Has Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday after the publication of the private human resources firm Automatic Data Processing.

“Expect that a low publication on American employment amplifies the Capitol requests for immediate reduction in rates, putting Powell and the others firmly on the hot seat before the July Pivot meeting (…)”, warned Stephen Innes of SPI Am, before the verdict of the NFP by the Labor Department.

Note that, on this side of the Atlantic, the growth of the first quarter for the euro zone was reviewed by Eurostat at 0.6% against 0.3% for a first estimate.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1395 approximately.

* Lateral channel, technical analysis term.

Key graphics elements

The pair of currencies currently succeeds in the highly important graphic test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange). A breath of breath is necessary before the conquest of new highests. That is to say the formation of several support on this trend curve. We have two of us.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the EURO Dollar parity prices (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1202 USD and the resistance to 1,1460 USD.

Daily data graphics