CAC 40: folds but does not break

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It should be noted that despite the holidays of this Monday (Pentecost), the Parisian market will remain open, under usual conditions of schedules and ratings. The volumes will be mechanically reduced, in the absence of a significant fringe of operators.

Friday, the CAC 40 managed to grab 0.19% to 7,804 points, the operators being reassured by a solid federal report on employment in May.

Here are the main lessons: the unemployment rate first of all, remains stable at 4.2% of the active population. Average time wages are growing a little more than anticipated (+0.4%), and above all, job creations in the private sector, at 139,000, above expectations, completes a solid portrait of employment.

What put into perspective the somewhat alarmist publication of the ADP cabinet a little earlier in the week. And above all enough to bring down the pressure on Jerome Powell’s shoulders, which has been undergoing presidential pressure since the start of the mandate of Trump to soften the rates.

The week that opens is under the sign of inflation, on the statistical side, with consumer prices across the Atlantic Wednesday (ICC).

The operators remain affected by customs issues. And therefore on the lookout for the slightest development in the trade war led by Trump against the rest of the world.

On the side of the values, there was no major movement on the CAC 40, apart from Thales which lost 4.1% (but still earns 88.6% since the start of the year). Dassault Systèmes fell 1.3% after having shifted by one year its medium -term objective objective per share, a decision which hardly surprises investors.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished the Friday session in the green, like the Nasdaq Composite (+1.20%) and the Dow Jones (+1.05%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.03% at 6,000 all round points.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1420. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 63.80. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.50%. As for the Vix, it was worth 16.77 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, first followed the final data of wholesalers at 4:00 p.m.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of the 7900.00 points would revive the tension to the purchase. While a break in the 7690.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics