EUR/USD: Liberation of buying energy on single currency

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The dollar lost feathers after a trade agreement announced between China and the United States, with the main challenge, and as lever customs duties.

Donald Trump said the agreement with China was “concluded” subject to final approval from him and that of Xi Jinping, the Chinese president. This agreement will, according to him, allow a regular supply of rare land to the American economy. “We get a total of 55% customs duties, China 10%,” he said. This seems to correspond to customs taxes of 55% against Chinese imports, and conversely, China would apply customs tariffs of 10% towards American imports.

These Chinese rare lands are a key issue in negotiations, the United States hoping that the pace of the expeditions of these strategic metals, which has slowed down since the American president launched his world trade war in early April, said AFP.

But it is clear that the terms of the agreement, which must still be formally signed by the two heads of state, leaves the circumspect market. The S & P500 was contracted yesterday 0.27%, again near the 6,000 points.

As for American inflation, within the meaning of consumer prices, they stand at +2.4% in annualized pace, in the widest basket of products. What strengthen the ire of the owner of the White House, which still has, on its social network of microblogging. “The Fed should drop [les taux] At a point at once. We would pay much less interest on the next debt deadlines. So important !!! “he wrote, still in capital letters on Truth Social.

The traders also digit the Council of Governors of the ECB, completed last week. If the central bank based in Frankfurt has undoubtedly lowered its main key rate of 25 basic points, the slightly firmer tone adopted by C Lagarde at a press conference lets consider a long break in the monetary easing process, it is already well engaged on this side of the Atlantic.

“The president of the ECB has displayed unexpected firmness, claiming that the institution was” at the end of a monetary policy cycle “. A clear positioning, unusual on his part. Result: a break now seems acquired from the July meeting, and according to market expectations, it will probably be necessary to wait for a new decline,” anticipates Romanesque Ballin, bond manager of Auris Gestion. “The ECB therefore remains cautious, rightly so. The geopolitical climate, in particular the rise in trade tensions, complicates the equation. American customs duties, by slowing down activity, are rather disinflationist; on the other hand, the expected response of Europe could revive the pressures on prices.”

Firmness of tone which plays immediately in favor of the single currency.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1605 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Technical, graphic and behavioral fact notable this Thursday: the crossing, in high volatility, of the $ 1,1460, which hitherto constituted the high (resistance) terminal of a Haussier triangle. The Haussier message is reinforced.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

Our entry point is 1,1602 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1459 USD.

The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 862 pips and the risk of loss is 143 pips.

Daily data graphics