(BFM Stock Exchange) – The large aeronautical show opens its doors to the press this Monday, June 16. In the case of Boeing, the market is likely to focus more on the suites of the 787 Air India crash than on orders. For Airbus, investors will be less attentive to commercial contracts than to challenges on production rates.

The great aviation mass will start on Monday. The “International Aeronautical and Space Salon” (SIAE), commonly called “Bourget Salon”, opens its doors to the press before receiving the general public.

Organized one year in two alternating with that of Farnborough, in the United Kingdom, this fair remains a must for professionals. About 2,500 exhibitors from 48 countries will participate.

For Airbus and Boeing, this event remains an opportunity to announce major commercial contracts. According to Jefferies Bank, each edition has, since 2010, has given rise to orders representing an average of 900 planes, a figure divided between the two groups. The highlight had been reached in 2023, vintage which had formed a record with 1,214 devices.

In total, the six editions held for fifteen years total 5,401 aircraft ordered, according to the bank data. This represents 40% of the total orders of the two groups since 2010. The Bank has tables on more than 1,000 units for this 2025 edition.

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Boeing’s 787 crash

However, market operators risk, in the case of Boeing, more focusing on the crash of 787-8 Air India that occurred on Thursday, than on orders for the show.

This accident caused at least 260 dead. At the time of writing this article, the causes of the incident were still unknown.

A sign of the severity of the situation, Kelly Ortberg, the director general of Boeing, canceled his arrival at the Bourget fair, according to an internal letter cited by AFP. The same is true for the director of the Civil Aviation Division of Society, Stéphanie Pope. The two leaders decided to “devote (their) attention to their client and the investigation”.

For Boeing, the Air India airplane crash adds critical uncertainty on a flagship plane. Boeing ensures that the 787 is the best-selling large-selling worldwide with more than 2,000 orders from 89 customers. The 787 of Boeing had so far never known a fatal accident and presented “a robust assessment in terms of security”, according to Jefferies.

This incident also poses operational risks at a key time for Boeing. Before the crash, the title Boeing progressed by more than 20% to Wall Street. Thursday, after the announcement of the accident, the title fell without collapsing, losing 4.7%.

The aircraft manufacturer had sent reassuring signals in recent months to its state of form and seemed to be of definitively turning the page of the 737 max crisis, its monocourloir, the two crashes of which occurred in 2018 and 2019 had caused 346 dead.

The crash of the 787, a shadow on the resumption of Boeing

Bank of America underlines that Kelly Ortberg, who arrived in August 2024 at the head of the group, completed “Herculean” tasks, with in particular the implementation of security and quality control systems, a point that has been lacking in the group in the past.

Boeing has also improved its production on production. In the first quarter, deliveries increased by 57% over a year and the group recalled wanting to reach by the end of the year a monthly production pace of 38 aircraft 737 max. The action had taken up 6% in the wake of the publication of these quarterly results.

But the crash of the 787 throws a shadow on this recovery. Saïma Hussain, analyst at the independent AlphaValue design office, fears disturbances on the production of 787 which “would intervene at a particularly delicate moment, while Boeing begins to stabilize its production flow and regain the confidence of its customers”.

“This incident could therefore compromise the recent delivery dynamics of Boeing, at the very moment when the company began to reduce the gap that separated it from Airbus,” warns the analyst.

“Investors will closely follow the regulatory reactions, the conclusions of the survey and the customer feeling in the coming weeks,” she adds.

In this context, any major commercial contracts signed by Boeing have good chance of going into the background.

On this last point, Richard Aboulafia, consultant at Aerodynamic and recognized expert in the sector interviewed by Bank of America, however points to an important subject. The consultant judges that orders for Boeing aircraft should continue to serve a diplomatic tool for the Trump administration. This had been the case during a recent visit by the American president in the Middle East, a tour which ended with more than 200 orders from the Gulf companies. Which, de facto, risks weighing on the orders of the American aircraft manufacturer during the Le Bourget.

Not so important commands at Airbus

On the Airbus side, investors are also likely not to react too much to the announcements of commercial contracts, however large as they may be.

In a note devoted to rumors of contracts for Airbus at Le Bourget, Jefferies noted that “the impact (orders, editor’s note) could be limited since the order books are full”. “The execution (especially production, editor’s note) represents more an engine for Airbus than orders at this stage …”, continued the bank.

“It becomes complicated for an airline to position themselves while these order books are full for ten years for the A320 NEO of Airbus. Orders of gros-paters, like the A350, are always good to take. But the market is less sensitive to orders than in the past,” says an analyst on his side.

The latter expert rather refers to the “business update” that Airbus will hold from investors on Wednesday, June 18.

Organized in Paris in the Bourget Fair, this event will be an opportunity for the aircraft manufacturer to take stock of its strategy and prospects. Investors will notably monitor the degree of confidence on the medium-term production target of the company A320 NEO of the company, the group’s bestseller. Airbus plans to achieve by 2027 to produce 75 aircraft per month of this family, a target that the company has repeatedly pushed back in the past.

Aircraft deliveries scrutinized at Airbus

In the shorter term, the latest Airbus deliveries, those of the month of May, proved to be less worse than feared by certain investors, at 51 units.

However, the group will have to whip again to hold its target of around 820 planes delivered this year. At the end of May 243 aircraft were delivered, which means that the group must reach 577 deliveries over the last seven months of the year, an increase of 13% over a year, calculates Jefferies. Airbus management’s comments on the current situation will therefore be fiercely scrutinized.

Royal Bank of Canada recently noted, on the basis of a survey carried out with 40 suppliers in the aeronautical sector, “that confidence in the (production, note) 2025-2026” “prospects of Airbus” was “damaged”.

“For example, suppliers now consider the A320neo as the most risky program, and their vision of production rates from the end of 2025 went from around 60 per month in our survey of the second semester of the year 2024 to just under 55 per month today,” wrote the Canadian bank

Bank of America, for his part, is optimistic. On Friday, the American bank estimated that Airbus should, during this “business update”, provide the “financial construction blocks” which will reassure investors on its medium -term profitability.

As for the impact of the Air India Boeing 787 crash, Airbus Executive President Guillaume Faury, has expressed condolences above all to the victims as well as his concern, taking care not to mention any positive effects for his own company.

“We all work very, very strong in this industry so that it does not happen. And when it happens, it is a tragedy,” regretted Airbus boss on Friday during Paris Air Forum.

AlphaValue believes, however, “that Iirbus could benefit from additional momentum if the crisis was getting worse”. “The A350 could attract new large carriers, airlines and rental companies seeking to rebalance their exposure and limit the risk of execution,” judges the design office.