EUR/USD: New technical camisole

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The euro / dollar remained compressed in a thin consolidation channel between 1,1460 and $ 1,1675, the traders keeping an attentive and anxious eye on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

“By hitting Iranian infrastructure dedicated to the development of its nuclear program as well as military capacities, Israel has led the most important offensive against the Islamic Republic since the war against its Iraqi neighbor in the 80s. These operations, which have already been extended over three days with material and human damage superior to all that had been observed, seem to be. Almost target of revolution guards and military infrastructure, avoiding major oil or policies, which suggests a targeted pressure strategy rather than a regime reversal objective, “comments Jeoffrey Ouafqa, director of management of Auris Gestion.

Hopes of lull were quickly swept away by the mysterious premature departure of Donald Trump during the G7 summit on Monday, one day before the end of the summit. This sudden departure has aroused for many questions for many questions, as well as the calls of the tenant of the White House “to evacuate Tehran immediately” in a message on his social network Truth Social.

Saturday and Sunday, the offensives of the two countries continued. On Saturday, Tel Aviv attacked the South Pars gas deposit in southern Iran. It is the largest gas reserve in the world, shared between Iran and Qatar.

This bombing shows that Israel does not hesitate to target Iran’s energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg who quotes the Israeli agency Tasnim, this attack, which targeted section 14 of the gas field, forced the closure of a production platform on the gas field.

The single currency, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk in the financial markets, took advantage of the support of a surprise, and firm rebound, of the ZEW index of trust in the German economy. The index torches from 25.2 to 47.5 points this month.

Yesterday Monday, the operators learned of a collapse of the manufacturing index of the NY Fed (Empire State Index) at -16.0.

“Confidence is straightening up. In June 2025, the Zew indicator recorded a new tangible improvement. Recent growth in consumer investment and demand has contributed to it. This development also seems to reinforce the idea that budgetary policy measures announced by the new German government can stimulate the economy. Conjugated to recent interest rate drops in the ECB, these measures could put an end to the economic stagnation in Germany Almost three years, “said Zew president Achim Wambach.

To follow retail sales in the United States at 2:30 p.m.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1560 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Thursday the spot freed from the grip of a resistance zone at $ 1,1460, a zone which is already early tested, in the form of a sweater This Friday. The absence of upward expansion after the crossing of the $ 1,1460 is doubted about the capacity of the spot to continue in the coming weeks its substantive ascending movement. The test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) will therefore be essential.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1460 USD and the resistance to 1,1674 USD.

Daily data graphics