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The nervousness rose from a notch on Tuesday on the Paris Stock Exchange, which collected the publication of retail sales across the Atlantic very disappointing. And in the background of course, the conflagration of the situation in the Middle East tense the markets. The tricolor flagship index, CAC 40, lost 0.76% to 7,683 points.
Over a month, these retail sales, it could not be more direct of the appetite of the American consumer, bent 0.9%, against -0.1% the previous month and -0.5% of consensus.
The retail sales report of May confirms that the gloom is installed among consumers. Beyond the strong variations of the last months, which are explained themselves by the volatility of car sales caused by pricing announcements, household consumption is without real trend. As with the labor market, developments are not negative enough to move the Fed but they are enough for it to remain alert, “comments Bastien Drut, responsible for strategy and economic studies.
A figure that will telescop the monetary policy council which has just opened, for two days. The Fed should announce a status quo On these rates.
The market remains naturally anxious with regard to the conflagration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Donald Trump, who has hastily left the G7 summit in Canada, one day before his end, still does not specify his military intentions as to a possible intervention in Iran, while demanding an immediate and without condition of Tehran.
On this Atlantic’s bank, the main macroeconomic statistics were much more positive, with a flambé of German ZEW.
“Confidence is straightening up. In June 2025, the Zew indicator recorded a new tangible improvement. Recent growth in consumer investment and demand has contributed to it. This development also seems to reinforce the idea that budgetary policy measures announced by the new German government can stimulate the economy. Conjugated to recent interest rate drops in the ECB, these measures could put an end to the economic stagnation in Germany Almost three years, “said Zew president Achim Wambach.
On the values ​​side, FDJ United increased by 2.9%, taking advantage of the interest of JPMorgan which started this Tuesday morning the coverage of the file to “overcome” with a target of 42 euros. On the front of the small medium-sized capitalizations, sale-unique resumed 3.6% after the publication of half-yearly accounts in accordance with management expectations, with the support of the resumption in 2024 of the Habitat brand. At the top of the list of compartment B on the coast, there was the specialist in canned Bonduelle ( +8.33% Tuesday, +38% since the start of the year).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main shares on shares finished Tuesday in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.70%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.91%). The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, contracted from 0.84% ​​to 5,982 points.
A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1500. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 73.10. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.40%. As for the Vix, it was worth 21.60 at the last fence of the S&P500.
At the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday, to follow in priority consumer prices in the euro zone at 11:00 am, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic at 2:30 p.m. and the Fed press conference, closing the FOMC, at 8:30 p.m. (Paris time).
Key graphics elements
The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.
The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.
First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7810.00 points.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Hourly data graphics
Daily data graphics
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