EUR/USD: antagonistic forces belt the spot

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On the pair of Euro / dollar currencies, the system is in the immediate balance, but the forces involved are important. On the one hand, a pressure is exercised on the single currency, one of the most reliable barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets. And on the other, the greenback also suffered from an intense pressure force due to its decoration mechanics with the price of a barrel, upstring the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

“The outbreak of a military conflict between Israel and Iran has weighing on a significant uncertainty about the global economy and the financial markets, as evidenced by recent volatility movements on bond markets, actions, energy and foreign exchange,” explains Kim Catechis, head of investment strategy for the Franklin Templeton Institute.

“Investors rightly fear that the conflict will extend, jeopardizing the global energy supply and disturbing the main international transport routes, which would be added to other sources of geoeconomic uncertainty. One of the main concerns is the possibility of an outbreak of oil prices which would lead to a return to high inflation. However, however, however. […] We believe that the risk of returning to inflation of the 1970s, caused by the rise in oil prices, remains relatively low. “

And it is indeed on the question of the price dynamics that will undoubtedly carry the questions at the Fed press conference at 8:30 p.m., at the end of the FOMC (Monetary Policy Council). On the rates proper, a status quo is widely awaited.

Yesterday, the looks focused mainly on the sacrosanct American consumption. Over a month, these retail sales, it could not be more direct of the appetite of the American consumer, bent 0.9%, against -0.1% the previous month and -0.5% of consensus.

“The retail sales report of May confirms that gloom is installed among consumers. Beyond the high variations of the last months, who are themselves explained by the volatility of car sales caused by pricing announcements, household consumption is without real trend. As for the labor market, developments are not sufficiently negative to move the Fed but they are sufficiently for alert”. DRUT, head of strategy and economic studies.

Earlier in the day, the Zew index of trust in the first economic power of the euro zone very pleasantly surprised. The Eponymous Institute index torches 25.2 to 47.5 points this month.

“Confidence is straightening up. In June 2025, the Zew indicator recorded a new tangible improvement. Recent growth in consumer investment and demand has contributed to it. This development also seems to reinforce the idea that budgetary policy measures announced by the new German government can stimulate the economy. Conjugated to recent interest rate drops in the ECB, these measures could put an end to the economic stagnation in Germany Almost three years, “said Zew president Achim Wambach.

This Wednesday, traders will follow the level of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic, expected at 246,000.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1,1500 approximately.

Key graphics elements

Thursday the spot freed from the grip of a resistance zone at $ 1,1460, a zone which is already early tested, in the form of a sweater This Friday. The absence of upward expansion after the crossing of the $ 1,1460 is doubted about the capacity of the spot to continue in the coming weeks its substantive ascending movement. The test of the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) will therefore be essential.

Medium term

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the courses of Euro Dollar parity (EURUSD) are positioned between the support at 1,1460 USD and the resistance to 1,1674 USD.

Daily data graphics